Chester North and Neston
North West · County constituency · Cheshire West and Chester borough
About the Chester North and Neston constituency
Chester North and Neston is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Samantha Dixon (Labour), first elected in December 2022. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.8% to 23.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,870 votes on a 63.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 40.9% and Reform UK on 22.3%, a margin of 18.6 points.
Who lives in Chester North and Neston? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Chester North and Neston vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Chester North and Neston
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Chester North and Neston within Cheshire West and Chester
Chester North and Neston sits entirely within Cheshire West and Chester Council. Cheshire West and Chester was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cheshire West and Chester | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | Willaston & Thornton | Con HOLD | Con 54% Lab 17% Ref 16% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blacon | Labour 53.7%vs Conservative 17.6% | 2023 Labour 75.3%vs Conservative 17.1% | - | 26.5% |
| Chester City & the Garden Quarter | Labour 52.8%vs Conservative 17.5% | 2023 Labour 63.3%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 35.9% |
| Great Boughton | Labour 48.7%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2023 Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 48.0% |
| Little Neston | Labour 54.8%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2023 Labour 61.4%vs Conservative 31.4% | - | 50.6% |
| Neston | Labour 47.6%vs Conservative 19.2% | 2023 Labour 67.4%vs Conservative 24.7% | - | 33.1% |
| Newton & Hoole | Labour 55.1%vs Conservative 18.4% | 2023 Labour 66.7%vs Conservative 17.3% | - | 47.9% |
| Parkgate | Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2023 Independent 53.3%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 45.6% |
| Saughall & Mollington | Labour 41.8%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Conservative 59.9%vs Labour 32.4% | - | 42.2% |
| Upton | Labour 49.1%vs Conservative 26.9% | 2023 Labour 51.8%vs Conservative 38.0% | - | 46.5% |
| Willaston & Thornton | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 36.4% | 2023 Conservative 60.9%vs Labour 26.5% | - | 44.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Chester North and Neston at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Chester North and Neston at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Stephen Mosley City of Chester MP | 35.1% | 40.6% | 19.1% | 2,583 | 66.7% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab gain from Con | Chris Matheson City of Chester MP | 43.2% | 43.1% | 5.6% | 93 | 68.7%+2.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Christian Matheson City of Chester MP | 56.8% | 40.5% | 2.7% | 9,176 | 77.4%+8.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Christian Matheson City of Chester MP, pre-review boundary | 50.3% | 38.5% | 6.2% | 6,391 | 74.6% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Samantha Dixon | 49.8% | 23.2% | 4.6% | 11,870 | 63.7%-10.9 |
Chester North and Neston was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat City of Chester (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Chester North and Neston
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Chester North and Neston. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate39.2 / 37.2vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate39.2 / 37.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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