Romsey and Southampton North
South East · County constituency
About the Romsey and Southampton North constituency
Romsey and Southampton North is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Caroline Nokes (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 39.8% to 35.4% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 2,191 votes on a 69.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.0% and the Liberal Democrats on 29.4%, a margin of 2.5 points.
Who lives in Romsey and Southampton North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Romsey and Southampton North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Romsey and Southampton North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Romsey and Southampton North within Test Valley and Southampton
Romsey and Southampton North crosses council boundaries: Test Valley (70%), Southampton (30%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Test Valley | 70% | — |
| Southampton | 30% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andover West | Con | Con 37% Ref 29% LD 20% | 41.6% |
| Baddesley | LD | LD 49% Ref 21% Con 20% | 48.9% |
| Romsey Rural | Con | Con 50% LD 22% Ref 20% | 50.8% |
| Romsey Town | LD | LD 47% Con 24% Ref 19% | 51.6% |
| Test Valley Central | Con | Con 46% Ref 22% LD 18% | 46.7% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ampfield & Braishfield | Lib Dem 40.7%vs Conservative 39.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.8%vs Conservative 42.2% | - | 40.3% |
| Anna | Conservative 44.6%vs Lib Dem 29.3% | 2023 Conservative 67.3%vs Lib Dem 22.9% | - | 44.3% |
| Bassett | Conservative 44.6%vs Lib Dem 33.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.1%vs Conservative 22.5% | Conservative→Lib Dem +13.9pp | 43.4% |
| Bellinger | Conservative 45.6%vs Lib Dem 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 66.5%vs Lib Dem 33.5% | - | 30.8% |
| Blackwater | Conservative 42.1%vs Lib Dem 31.2% | 2023 Conservative 53.8%vs Lib Dem 25.4% | - | 55.3% |
| Charlton & the Pentons | Conservative 48.5%vs Lib Dem 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 48.0%vs Lib Dem 28.3% | - | 34.3% |
| Chilworth, Nursling & Rownhams | Conservative 39.4%vs Lib Dem 34.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 50.2%vs Conservative 49.8% | - | 35.8% |
| Harewood | Conservative 41.4%vs Lib Dem 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 52.0%vs Lib Dem 48.0% | - | 47.8% |
| Mid Test | Conservative 41.2%vs Lib Dem 36.3% | 2023 Conservative 50.1%vs Lib Dem 37.5% | - | 42.0% |
| North Baddesley | Lib Dem 44.3%vs Conservative 32.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 69.9%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | 36.6% |
| Romsey Abbey | Lib Dem 40.9%vs Conservative 35.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.6%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | 43.6% |
| Romsey Cupernham | Lib Dem 41.8%vs Conservative 33.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 60.0%vs Conservative 35.0% | - | 40.3% |
| Romsey Tadburn | Lib Dem 44.2%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 71.5%vs Conservative 23.4% | - | 46.6% |
| Swaythling | Conservative 35.9%vs Lib Dem 26.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 33.4%vs Green 22.4% | Conservative→Lib Dem +17.6pp | 35.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Romsey and Southampton North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Romsey and Southampton North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from LD | Caroline Nokes | 6.4% | 49.7% | 41.3% | 4,156 | 71.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Caroline Nokes | 11.9% | 54.3% | 17.7% | 17,712 | 72.8%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Caroline Nokes | 19.2% | 57.2% | 21.2% | 18,046 | 74.6%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Caroline Nokes 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 12.1% | 57.9% | 28.1% | 16,251 | 74.1%-0.5 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Caroline Nokes | 9.3% | 39.8% | 35.4% | 2,191 | 69.6%-4.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Romsey and Southampton North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Romsey and Southampton North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓No quals13.7 / 15.8vs 18.0
- ↓Leave46.1 / 47.2vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 69.4vs 61.9
- ↓No quals13.7 / 13.5vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓No quals13.7 / 14.8vs 18.0
- ↓Leave46.1 / 50.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↓No quals13.7 / 14.0vs 18.0
- ↓Leave46.1 / 48.7vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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