Constituency profile

Truro and Falmouth

South West · County constituency · Cornwall borough

Jayne Kirkham MP
Sitting MP

Jayne Kirkham

Labour (Co-op)

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency, Cornwall council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
45.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -6.0pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +5.9pp
vs Reform UK 26.3%
SouthernBrexit-marginal

About the Truro and Falmouth constituency

Truro and Falmouth is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Jayne Kirkham (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.4% to 25.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,151 votes on a 68.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.2% and Reform UK on 26.3%, a margin of 5.9 points.

Who lives in Truro and Falmouth? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
45.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
37.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
13.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
64.8%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
33.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
44.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
27.7%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
29.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Truro and Falmouth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 8,151 votes (16.3pp) · turnout 68.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Truro and Falmouth

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Truro and Falmouth within Cornwall

Truro and Falmouth sits entirely within Cornwall Council. Cornwall was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Cornwall
56 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
20 Sep 2024Falmouth Penwerris
Cornwall
Lab HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Falmouth ArwenackLabour 49.4%vs Conservative 23.7%2021 Labour 37.3%vs Conservative 31.8%-71.6%
Falmouth BoslowickLabour 44.5%vs Conservative 25.6%2021 Conservative 40.3%vs Labour 33.6%-42.5%
Falmouth PenwerrisLabour 61.0%vs Conservative 15.8%2021 Labour 64.5%vs Conservative 19.7%-55.2%
Falmouth Trescobeas & BudockLabour 49.3%vs Conservative 23.6%2021 Independent 32.9%vs Labour 32.1%--
Feock & KeaConservative 39.0%vs Labour 26.7%2021 Conservative 59.1%vs Green 18.4%--
Gloweth, Malabar & ShortlanesendLabour 39.0%vs Conservative 25.9%2021 Conservative 34.2%vs Independent 23.5%--
Mylor, Perranarworthal & PonsanoothConservative 32.5%vs Labour 25.9%2021 Conservative 38.0%vs Lib Dem 36.0%--
PenrynLabour 42.8%vs Conservative 17.0%2021 Green 33.4%vs Labour 26.5%--
Probus & St ErmeLabour 40.1%vs Conservative 26.0%2021 Conservative 56.5%vs Green 43.5%--
St Goran, Tregony & the RoselandLabour 38.7%vs Conservative 27.4%2021 Independent 55.4%vs Conservative 33.3%--
St Newlyn East, Cubert & GoonhavernLabour 38.6%vs Conservative 27.8%2021 Conservative 46.6%vs Independent 34.0%--
Threemilestone & ChacewaterLabour 42.6%vs Conservative 26.6%2021 Independent 37.8%vs Conservative 30.8%--
Truro Boscawen & RedannickLabour 37.9%vs Conservative 21.7%2021 Lib Dem 38.9%vs Conservative 26.7%--
Truro Moresk & TrehaverneLabour 41.4%vs Conservative 25.7%2021 Conservative 29.8%vs Independent 28.7%--
Truro TregollsLabour 34.4%vs Conservative 22.8%2021 Independent 74.1%vs Conservative 15.2%-51.9%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Truro and Falmouth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Truro and Falmouth at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con gain from LDSarah Newton9.6%41.7%40.8%3.9% UKIP1.8%2.1%43569.1%
2015Con holdSarah Newton15.2%44.0%16.8%11.6% UKIP8.7%3.7%14,00070.0%+0.9
2017Con holdSarah Newton37.7%44.4%14.9%1.6% UKIP1.5%-3,79275.8%+5.8
2019notionalConservative winnerCherilyn Mackrory 2019 MP, pre-review boundary38.8%46.8%10.8%-2.8%0.8%4,45975.3%-0.5
2024Lab gain from ConJayne Kirkham41.3%25.1%13.0%12.3% Ref6.9%1.3%8,15168.9%-6.4

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Truro and Falmouth

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Truro and Falmouth. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.