Bangor Aberconwy
Wales · County constituency
About the Bangor Aberconwy constituency
Bangor Aberconwy is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Claire Hughes (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 33.6% to 21.9% for Plaid Cymru, a majority of 4,896 votes on a 59.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Plaid Cymru on 34.2% and Reform UK on 21.4%, a margin of 12.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Bangor Aberconwy? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bangor Aberconwy vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bangor Aberconwy
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Bangor Aberconwy voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Bangor Aberconwy sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Bangor Conwy Môn. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Bangor Aberconwy | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangor Conwy Môn | 99% | Plaid Cymru 44.9% | Reform UK 28.1% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Bangor Aberconwy within Conwy and Gwynedd and 1 other council
Bangor Aberconwy crosses council boundaries: Conwy (68%), Gwynedd (29%), Denbighshire (4%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Conwy | 68% |
| Gwynedd | 29% |
| Denbighshire | 4% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch | Ind GAIN from PC | Other 50% PC 40% Ref 8% |
| 18 Jun 2026 | Gogarth Mostyn | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 34% Con 28% Lab 26% |
| 18 Jun 2026 | Tudno | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 43% Con 22% Lab 21% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arllechwedd | Plaid Cymru 38.1%vs Labour 28.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 81.1%vs Others 11.8% | - | - |
| Betws-y-Coed and Trefriw | Plaid Cymru 35.4%vs Labour 27.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 67.8%vs Labour 18.2% | - | 45.3% |
| Betws-yn-Rhos | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 20.6% | 2022 Independent 86.2%vs Conservative 13.8% | - | 42.8% |
| Bryn | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2022 Conservative 33.8%vs Labour 32.8% | - | 50.9% |
| Caerhun | Conservative 31.4%vs Labour 28.4% | 2022 Independent 41.1%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 56.3% |
| Canol Bangor | Labour 35.6%vs Plaid Cymru 27.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 74.4%vs Independent 11.2% | - | - |
| Canol Bethesda | Labour 32.6%vs Plaid Cymru 21.3% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Conwy | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2022 Independent 38.6%vs Conservative 27.8% | - | 53.0% |
| Craig-y-don | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2022 Conservative 37.2%vs Independent 31.5% | - | 77.0% |
| Deganwy | Labour 35.6%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2022 Conservative 48.0%vs Independent 36.0% | - | 60.9% |
| Dewi | Labour 34.4%vs Reform 21.5% | 2017 Plaid Cymru 54.7%vs Independent 45.3% | - | - |
| Dwyrain Bangor | Labour 38.3%vs Reform 21.7% | 2022 Independent 82.1%vs Lib Dem 12.2% | - | - |
| Efenechdyd | Plaid Cymru 35.9%vs Labour 25.8% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 79.0%vs Conservative 21.0% | - | 40.1% |
| Eglwys-bach a Llangernyw | Plaid Cymru 38.0%vs Labour 24.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 72.7%vs Conservative 14.1% | - | 46.1% |
| Gerlan | Labour 32.2%vs Plaid Cymru 21.0% | 2017 Plaid Cymru 54.5%vs Independent 33.9% | - | 50.0% |
| Glyder | Plaid Cymru 36.9%vs Labour 29.5% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 87.0%vs Independent 13.0% | - | - |
| Glyn y Marl | Labour 41.9%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2022 Independent 23.2%vs Conservative 21.5% | - | 66.3% |
| Gogarth Mostyn | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2022 Conservative 44.6%vs Labour 31.6% | - | 45.8% |
| Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch | Plaid Cymru 31.6%vs Labour 25.4% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 69.4%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 47.5% |
| Llanrwst a Llanddoged | Plaid Cymru 30.2%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 68.1%vs Conservative 31.9% | - | - |
| Llansanffraid | Labour 32.2%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2022 Independent 67.5%vs Conservative 19.6% | - | - |
| Llansannan | Labour 29.8%vs Plaid Cymru 28.9% | 2022 Independent 46.1%vs Plaid Cymru 41.3% | - | - |
| Pandy | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 22.1% | 2022 Labour 60.6%vs Conservative 24.4% | - | - |
| Penmaenmawr | Labour 35.8%vs Plaid Cymru 22.4% | 2022 Independent 40.0%vs Labour 24.5% | - | - |
| Penrhyn | Labour 31.3%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2022 Independent 64.4%vs Conservative 28.2% | - | - |
| Tre-garth a Mynydd Llandygái | Labour 33.8%vs Conservative 19.9% | No council data | - | - |
| Tudno | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2022 Conservative 35.6%vs Independent 26.7% | - | - |
| Uwch Aled | Plaid Cymru 44.3%vs Labour 24.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 89.2%vs Conservative 10.8% | - | - |
| Uwch Conwy | Plaid Cymru 43.7%vs Labour 26.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 74.6%vs Labour 16.5% | - | - |
| Y Faenol | Plaid Cymru 34.0%vs Labour 29.3% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 79.1%vs Lib Dem 20.9% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bangor Aberconwy at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bangor Aberconwy at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | David Jones Clwyd West MP | 24.7% | 41.5% | 15.2% | 6,419 | 65.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | David Jones Clwyd West MP | 25.6% | 43.3% | 3.6% | 6,730 | 64.8%-1.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | David Jones Clwyd West MP | 39.6% | 48.1% | 2.7% | 3,437 | 69.8%+5.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David Jones Clwyd West MP, pre-review boundary | 38.4% | 40.0% | 4.4% | 749 | 68.7% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Claire Hughes | 33.6% | 21.7% | 3.7% | 4,896 | 59.1%-9.6 |
Bangor Aberconwy was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Clwyd West (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Bangor Aberconwy
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bangor Aberconwy. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave47.0 / 45.9vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 27.7vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.6 / 53.3vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.6 / 53.7vs 57.3
- ↓Leave47.0 / 50.7vs 53.2
- ↓Employed51.6 / 49.8vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 30.7vs 22.7
- ↓Leave47.0 / 50.3vs 53.2
- ↓Leave47.0 / 47.6vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 26.8vs 22.7
- ↓Employed51.6 / 55.0vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 26.9vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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