Ceredigion Preseli
Wales · County constituency
About the Ceredigion Preseli constituency
Ceredigion Preseli is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Ben Lake (Plaid Cymru), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Plaid Cymru won with 47.0% to 15.0% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 14,789 votes on a 61.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Plaid Cymru on 58.4% and Reform UK on 15.1%, a margin of 43.3 points.
Who lives in Ceredigion Preseli? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ceredigion Preseli vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ceredigion Preseli
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Ceredigion Preseli voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Ceredigion Preseli sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Ceredigion Penfro. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Ceredigion Preseli | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceredigion Penfro | 100% | Plaid Cymru 35.8% | Reform UK 25.8% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Ceredigion Preseli within Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire
Ceredigion Preseli crosses council boundaries: Ceredigion (76%), Pembrokeshire (24%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Ceredigion | 76% |
| Pembrokeshire | 24% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | Fishguard: North East | PC GAIN from Ind | — |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Tirymynach | LD HOLD | — |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Aberystwyth Penparcau | PC GAIN from Ind | — |
| 20 Oct 2022 | Lampeter | PC GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberaeron and Aberarth | Lib Dem 30.3%vs Plaid Cymru 29.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 83.2%vs Independent 16.8% | - | - |
| Aberporth and Y Ferwig | Plaid Cymru 56.5%vs Lib Dem 11.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 78.2%vs Independent 21.8% | - | - |
| Aberystwyth Morfa a Glais | Plaid Cymru 47.6%vs Lib Dem 16.3% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 51.9%vs Lib Dem 18.1% | - | - |
| Aberystwyth Penparcau | Plaid Cymru 47.2%vs Labour 14.5% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 59.0%vs Labour 21.3% | - | - |
| Aberystwyth Rheidol | Plaid Cymru 40.7%vs Lib Dem 15.8% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 33.8%vs Lib Dem 25.5% | - | - |
| Beulah and Llangoedmor | Plaid Cymru 57.5%vs Lib Dem 11.9% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 74.2%vs Independent 13.6% | - | - |
| Boncath and Clydau | Plaid Cymru 53.6%vs Lib Dem 12.7% | 2022 Independent 52.1%vs Plaid Cymru 47.9% | - | - |
| Borth | Plaid Cymru 37.7%vs Labour 16.4% | 2022 Independent 69.0%vs Green 31.1% | - | - |
| Bro Gwaun | Plaid Cymru 37.3%vs Lib Dem 20.6% | 2022 Independent 52.3%vs Lib Dem 47.7% | - | - |
| Ceulan a Maesmawr | Plaid Cymru 58.0%vs Lib Dem 11.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 59.7%vs Independent 40.3% | - | - |
| Cilgerran and Eglwyswrw | Plaid Cymru 42.5%vs Reform 17.3% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Ciliau Aeron | Plaid Cymru 50.1%vs Lib Dem 13.3% | 2022 Independent 65.0%vs Plaid Cymru 35.0% | - | - |
| Crymych and Mynachlog-ddu | Plaid Cymru 43.0%vs Reform 17.2% | 2022 Independent 53.7%vs Plaid Cymru 46.3% | - | - |
| Faenor | Plaid Cymru 46.3%vs Lib Dem 23.4% | 2022 Lib Dem 50.5%vs Plaid Cymru 39.5% | - | - |
| Fishguard: North East | Plaid Cymru 35.0%vs Conservative 16.5% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Fishguard: North West | Plaid Cymru 43.1%vs Reform 17.4% | Sitting Independent x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Goodwick | Plaid Cymru 39.1%vs Labour 16.8% | 2022 Labour 47.1%vs Independent 45.1% | - | - |
| Lampeter | Plaid Cymru 43.2%vs Reform 17.9% | 2017 Labour 47.3%vs Independent 35.4% | - | - |
| Llanbadarn Fawr | Plaid Cymru 57.1%vs Labour 11.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 77.7%vs Independent 11.2% | - | - |
| Llandyfriog | Plaid Cymru 42.7%vs Reform 17.4% | Sitting Plaid Cymru x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Llandysul North and Troedyraur | Plaid Cymru 52.8%vs Lib Dem 13.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 46.3%vs Independent 45.8% | - | - |
| Llandysul South | Plaid Cymru 51.5%vs Lib Dem 12.3% | 2022 Independent 58.2%vs Plaid Cymru 41.8% | - | - |
| Llanfarian | Plaid Cymru 40.5%vs Lib Dem 25.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 68.0%vs Plaid Cymru 31.9% | - | - |
| Llanfihangel Ystrad | Plaid Cymru 53.9%vs Lib Dem 12.0% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 50.2%vs Independent 49.8% | - | - |
| Llangeitho | Plaid Cymru 39.9%vs Reform 18.9% | 2017 Independent 89.0%vs Labour 11.0% | - | - |
| Llangybi | Plaid Cymru 52.6%vs Lib Dem 12.9% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 48.4%vs Independent 26.6% | - | - |
| Llanrhian | Plaid Cymru 41.1%vs Lib Dem 15.2% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| Llanrhystyd | Plaid Cymru 34.0%vs Lib Dem 21.1% | 2022 Others 39.8%vs Lib Dem 26.6% | - | - |
| Llansanffraid | Plaid Cymru 55.7%vs Lib Dem 11.6% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 54.1%vs Independent 45.9% | - | - |
| Llanwenog | Plaid Cymru 46.3%vs Lib Dem 13.8% | 2022 Independent 67.9%vs Plaid Cymru 32.1% | - | - |
| Lledrod | Plaid Cymru 48.5%vs Lib Dem 13.1% | 2022 Independent 70.5%vs Plaid Cymru 29.6% | - | - |
| Maenclochog | Plaid Cymru 43.7%vs Lib Dem 15.2% | 2022 Independent 58.0%vs Plaid Cymru 21.6% | - | - |
| Melindwr | Plaid Cymru 63.6%vs Lib Dem 9.9% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 87.0%vs Green 13.0% | - | - |
| Mwldan | Plaid Cymru 40.2%vs Lib Dem 22.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 61.7%vs Plaid Cymru 38.3% | - | - |
| New Quay and Llanllwchaearn | Plaid Cymru 55.7%vs Lib Dem 11.8% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 54.1%vs Independent 45.9% | - | - |
| Newport and Dinas | Plaid Cymru 47.7%vs Lib Dem 13.2% | 2022 Independent 71.3%vs Plaid Cymru 28.7% | - | - |
| Penbryn | Plaid Cymru 37.3%vs Lib Dem 16.2% | 2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | - |
| St Dogmaels | Plaid Cymru 39.9%vs Reform 18.8% | 2017 Independent 81.6%vs Labour 18.4% | - | - |
| Teifi | Plaid Cymru 41.1%vs Lib Dem 20.7% | 2022 Lib Dem 47.0%vs Plaid Cymru 40.5% | - | - |
| Tirymynach | Plaid Cymru 40.4%vs Reform 19.0% | 2017 Lib Dem 56.2%vs Plaid Cymru 43.8% | - | - |
| Trefeurig | Plaid Cymru 55.5%vs Lib Dem 11.9% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 52.7%vs Independent 47.3% | - | - |
| Tregaron and Ystrad Fflur | Plaid Cymru 50.7%vs Lib Dem 13.0% | 2022 Independent 70.2%vs Plaid Cymru 29.9% | - | - |
| Ystwyth | Plaid Cymru 42.6%vs Lib Dem 24.3% | 2022 Lib Dem 59.0%vs Plaid Cymru 41.0% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ceredigion Preseli at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ceredigion Preseli at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Mark Williams Ceredigion MP | 5.8% | 11.6% | 50.0% | 8,324 | 63.9% |
| 2015predecessor | LD hold | Mark Williams Ceredigion MP | 9.7% | 11.0% | 35.9% | 3,067 | 69.0%+5.1 |
| 2017predecessor | PC gain from LD | Ben Lake Ceredigion MP | 20.2% | 18.4% | 29.0% | 104 | 73.3%+4.3 |
| 2019notional | Plaid Cymru winner | Ben Lake Ceredigion MP, pre-review boundary | 20.8% | 28.3% | 14.6% | 1,443 | 69.8% |
| 2024 | PC hold | Ben Lake | 11.6% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 14,789 | 61.2%-8.6 |
Ceredigion Preseli was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Ceredigion (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Ceredigion Preseli
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ceredigion Preseli. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Employed49.8 / 51.6vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+30.7 / 27.7vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 65.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.7 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 66.1vs 61.9
- ↓Employed49.8 / 53.7vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+30.7 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.4 / 12.7vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+30.7 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↓Employed49.8 / 52.8vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+30.7 / 31.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 71.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.4 / 9.9vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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