Swansea West
Wales · County constituency · Swansea borough
About the Swansea West constituency
Swansea West is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Torsten Bell (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.4% to 17.5% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,515 votes on a 48.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 24.1% and Plaid Cymru on 22.9%, a margin of 1.2 points.
Who lives in Swansea West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Swansea West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Swansea West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Swansea West voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Swansea West sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Gŵyr Abertawe. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Swansea West | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gŵyr Abertawe | 98% | Plaid Cymru 31.9% | Reform UK 27.5% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour |
| Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd | 2% | Reform UK 33.2% | Plaid Cymru 28.7% | 3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Liberal Democrats |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Swansea West within Swansea
Swansea West sits entirely within Swansea Council. Swansea was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Swansea | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | Morriston | Lab HOLD | Lab 35% Ref 32% PC 22% |
| 28 Apr 2023 | Penderry | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle | Labour 48.0%vs Reform 19.1% | 2022 Labour 73.2%vs Others 7.5% | - | - |
| Cwmbwrla | Labour 34.5%vs Lib Dem 25.0% | 2022 Lib Dem 69.0%vs Labour 26.8% | - | - |
| Landore | Labour 43.2%vs Reform 17.4% | 2022 Labour 86.8%vs Lib Dem 7.1% | - | - |
| Morriston | Labour 42.7%vs Reform 16.5% | 2022 Labour 84.0%vs Conservative 8.8% | - | - |
| Mynydd-bach | Labour 41.3%vs Reform 17.0% | 2022 Labour 83.8%vs Conservative 9.2% | - | - |
| Penderry | Labour 36.8%vs Reform 22.2% | 2022 Labour 91.8%vs Conservative 8.2% | - | - |
| Sketty | Labour 40.5%vs Lib Dem 20.8% | 2022 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Labour 34.1% | - | - |
| Townhill | Labour 45.2%vs Reform 20.4% | 2022 Labour 81.8%vs Green 5.1% | - | - |
| Uplands | Labour 40.0%vs Reform 19.4% | 2022 Others 57.9%vs Labour 34.8% | - | - |
| Waterfront | Labour 32.4%vs Reform 23.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 60.5%vs Labour 31.7% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Swansea West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Swansea West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Geraint Davies | 34.7% | 20.8% | 33.2% | 504 | 58.0% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Geraint Davies | 42.6% | 22.6% | 9.0% | 7,036 | 59.8%+1.8 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Geraint Davies | 59.8% | 31.3% | 3.4% | 10,598 | 65.5%+5.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Geraint Davies 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 51.4% | 28.7% | 6.4% | 10,037 | 59.2%-6.3 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Torsten Bell | 41.4% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 8,515 | 48.0%-11.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Swansea West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Swansea West. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 45.7vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent26.0 / 32.0vs 16.8
- ↑Under 3537.3 / 41.3vs 30.2
- ↓Leave43.4 / 45.8vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent26.0 / 21.7vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 56.8vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↓Leave43.4 / 34.8vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent26.0 / 21.6vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 53.8vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent26.0 / 22.2vs 16.8
- ↓Employed47.0 / 53.2vs 57.3
- ↓Owner-occupied50.4 / 52.3vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent26.0 / 27.2vs 16.8
- ↓Leave43.4 / 48.7vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.