Constituency profile

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend

North East · Borough constituency

Mary Glindon MP
Sitting MP

Mary Glindon

Labour

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North East
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
50.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -1.6pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +9.9pp
vs Reform UK 26.0%
NorthernBrexit-marginal

About the Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend constituency

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend is a borough constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Mary Glindon (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.1% to 19.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 12,817 votes on a 55.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.9% and Reform UK on 26.0%, a margin of 9.9 points.

Who lives in Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
50.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
30.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
19.4%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
45.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
53.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
35.0
UK median ~40
Age 65+
17.8%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
41.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 12,817 votes (30.3pp) · turnout 55.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend within Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend crosses council boundaries: Newcastle upon Tyne (60%), North Tyneside (40%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Newcastle upon Tyne
43 LSOAs
60%View projection ›
North Tyneside
29 LSOAs
40%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Battle HillLabour 48.8%vs Reform 19.0%May 2026 Reform 43.3%vs Labour 35.2%
Labour→Reform
+18.9pp
-
BykerLabour 51.5%vs Reform 21.2%May 2026 Green 60.0%vs Reform 24.1%
Labour→Green
+43.2pp
35.8%
HeatonLabour 51.7%vs Reform 17.5%May 2026 Green 54.2%vs Lib Dem 19.0%
Labour→Green
+36.0pp
58.7%
HowdonLabour 50.4%vs Reform 19.1%May 2026 Reform 47.6%vs Labour 27.1%
Labour→Reform
+25.9pp
-
Manor ParkLabour 45.2%vs Reform 18.8%May 2026 Lib Dem 47.7%vs Green 21.5%
Labour→Lib Dem
+33.6pp
52.1%
OuseburnLabour 50.8%vs Reform 20.0%May 2026 Green 59.6%vs Lib Dem 23.7%
Labour→Green
+45.4pp
48.4%
WalkerLabour 53.0%vs Reform 22.3%May 2026 Reform 40.8%vs Green 39.9%
Labour→Reform
+30.2pp
35.6%
WalkergateLabour 51.0%vs Reform 20.6%May 2026 Reform 48.6%vs Labour 21.7%
Labour→Reform
+28.6pp
43.9%
Wallsend CentralLabour 53.0%vs Reform 19.2%May 2026 Reform 35.8%vs Labour 33.1%
Labour→Reform
+18.3pp
-
Wallsend NorthLabour 53.0%vs Reform 19.2%May 2026 Reform 43.8%vs Labour 27.1%
Labour→Reform
+25.3pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdMary Glindon North Tyneside MP50.7%18.3%22.9%2.8% UKIP-5.3%12,88459.7%
2015predecessorLab holdMary Glindon North Tyneside MP55.9%19.2%4.4%16.3% UKIP3.1%1.1%17,19459.0%-0.7
2017predecessorLab holdMary Glindon North Tyneside MP64.5%27.3%2.9%4.0% UKIP1.3%-19,28465.8%+6.8
2019notionalLabour winnerMary Glindon North Tyneside MP, pre-review boundary59.3%23.7%8.3%-3.8%4.9%17,79365.0%
2024Lab holdMary Glindon50.1%8.3%7.0%19.8% Ref12.4%2.3%12,81755.5%-9.5

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat North Tyneside (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.