Constituency profile

Norwich South

East of England · Borough constituency

Clive Lewis MP
Sitting MP

Clive Lewis

Labour

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East of England
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LDLLLL
Labour 4/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5
EU referendum 2016
40.5% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -11.4pp below mean
Current outlook
Green +0.2pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)
SouthernRemain-leaning

About the Norwich South constituency

Norwich South is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Clive Lewis (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.6% to 18.3% for the Greens, a majority of 13,239 votes on a 59.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Greens on 32.3% and Labour on 32.0%, a margin of 0.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Norwich South? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
40.5%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
36.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.3%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
43.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
55.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
34.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
18.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
42.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Norwich South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 13,239 votes (29.3pp) · turnout 59.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Norwich South

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Norwich South within Norwich

Norwich South sits almost entirely within Norwich Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Norwich
58 LSOAs
95%View projection ›
South Norfolk
3 LSOAs
5%

Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026

The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.

DivisionWinnerTop 3 vote sharesTurnout
BowthorpeGrnGrn 35% Ref 32% Lab 23%38.2%
CostesseyRefRef 33% Independent 23% LD 15%44.1%
EatonLDLD 42% Grn 20% Ref 16%58.8%
LakenhamGrnGrn 38% Lab 25% Ref 25%42.3%
MancroftGrnGrn 56% Ref 19% Lab 14%40.3%
NelsonGrnGrn 61% Lab 22% Ref 8%58.1%
Thorpe HamletGrnGrn 43% Lab 28% Ref 16%45.8%
Town CloseGrnGrn 44% Lab 31% Ref 12%52.7%
UniversityGrnGrn 42% Lab 19% Ref 19%41.1%
WensumGrnGrn 50% Ref 25% Lab 16%38.4%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BowthorpeLabour 51.4%vs Green 14.2%May 2026 Green 34.6%vs Reform 31.7%
Labour→Green
+24.1pp
-
EatonLabour 39.3%vs Lib Dem 19.3%May 2026 Lib Dem 45.9%vs Green 19.0%
Labour→Lib Dem
+26.9pp
-
LakenhamLabour 51.4%vs Green 13.9%May 2026 Green 39.2%vs Reform 25.2%
Labour→Green
+25.9pp
-
MancroftLabour 43.9%vs Green 24.3%May 2026 Green 58.3%vs Reform 18.8%
Labour→Green
+32.8pp
-
NelsonLabour 48.0%vs Green 28.5%May 2026 Green 65.7%vs Labour 18.9%
Labour→Green
+33.2pp
-
New CostesseyLabour 38.5%vs Conservative 19.6%2023 Lib Dem 35.3%vs Labour 29.0%-31.7%
Thorpe HamletLabour 44.9%vs Green 22.7%May 2026 Green 43.1%vs Labour 29.6%
Labour→Green
+17.9pp
-
Town CloseLabour 52.0%vs Green 15.7%May 2026 Green 45.8%vs Labour 30.5%
Labour→Green
+25.8pp
-
UniversityLabour 52.8%vs Green 15.4%May 2026 Green 43.0%vs Reform 20.9%
Labour→Green
+31.2pp
-
WensumLabour 50.8%vs Green 18.6%May 2026 Green 50.5%vs Reform 24.3%
Labour→Green
+33.4pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Norwich South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Norwich South at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD gain from LabSimon Wright28.7%22.9%29.4%2.4% UKIP14.9%1.7%31064.6%
2015Lab gain from LDClive Lewis39.3%23.5%13.6%9.4% UKIP13.9%0.3%7,65464.7%+0.1
2017Lab holdClive Lewis61.0%30.6%5.5%-2.9%-15,59669.2%+4.5
2019notionalLabour winnerClive Lewis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary53.5%29.0%9.5%-4.8%3.2%12,58370.0%+0.8
2024Lab holdClive Lewis47.6%12.9%7.9%11.6% Ref18.3%1.7%13,23959.1%-10.9

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Norwich South

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Norwich South. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.