Constituency profile

Liverpool Wavertree

North West · Borough constituency · Liverpool borough

Paula Barker MP
Sitting MP

Paula Barker

Labour

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency, Liverpool council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
31.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -20.6pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +34.2pp
vs Green 20.5%
NorthernStrong Remain area

About the Liverpool Wavertree constituency

Liverpool Wavertree is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Paula Barker (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 58.0% to 17.0% for the Greens, a majority of 16,304 votes on a 56.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 54.6% and the Greens on 20.5%, a margin of 34.2 points.

Who lives in Liverpool Wavertree? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
31.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
36.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
47.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
51.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
33.9
UK median ~40
Age 65+
16.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
43.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Liverpool Wavertree vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 16,304 votes (41.0pp) · turnout 56.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Liverpool Wavertree

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Liverpool Wavertree within Liverpool

Liverpool Wavertree sits entirely within Liverpool Council. Liverpool was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Liverpool
62 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
12 Mar 2026Aigburth
Liverpool
Grn GAIN from LDGrn 45% LD 37% Lab 10%
17 Jul 2025Sefton Park
Liverpool
Grn HOLDGrn 50% Lab 22% LD 20%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AigburthLabour 54.4%vs Green 15.6%2023 Lib Dem 50.3%vs Labour 31.9%-42.0%
ArundelLabour 57.7%vs Green 13.6%2023 Labour 73.4%vs Green 15.8%-26.6%
CanningLabour 57.3%vs Green 20.1%2023 Labour 63.8%vs Green 21.2%--
ChildwallLabour 60.0%vs Lib Dem 10.3%2023 Lib Dem 63.4%vs Labour 26.9%-36.7%
ChurchLabour 58.0%vs Lib Dem 13.7%2023 Lib Dem 55.5%vs Labour 33.6%-43.0%
Edge HillLabour 60.7%vs Green 12.7%2023 Labour 65.7%vs Lib Dem 18.5%-22.1%
Greenbank ParkLabour 52.0%vs Green 24.7%2023 Green 45.2%vs Labour 36.7%--
Kensington & FairfieldLabour 66.2%vs Green 13.0%2023 Labour 71.7%vs Lib Dem 9.2%-33.2%
Mossley HillLabour 58.6%vs Green 15.2%2023 Lib Dem 59.8%vs Labour 24.4%-20.2%
Penny LaneLabour 57.0%vs Lib Dem 11.2%2023 Lib Dem 55.1%vs Labour 29.2%--
Princes ParkLabour 67.1%vs Green 15.3%2023 Labour 70.1%vs Green 20.7%-9.1%
Sefton ParkLabour 48.6%vs Green 27.5%2023 Green 56.8%vs Labour 33.6%--
SmithdownLabour 61.0%vs Green 17.2%2023 Labour 68.9%vs Green 12.8%--
St MichaelsLabour 45.4%vs Green 34.0%2023 Green 69.8%vs Labour 26.5%-16.8%
Wavertree Garden SuburbLabour 59.0%vs Green 12.7%2023 Labour 37.7%vs Lib Dem 34.8%--
Wavertree VillageLabour 60.3%vs Green 16.0%2023 Lib Dem 40.6%vs Labour 36.9%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Liverpool Wavertree at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Liverpool Wavertree at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdLuciana Berger53.1%7.5%34.2%2.3% UKIP1.6%1.3%7,16760.6%
2015Lab holdLuciana Berger69.3%10.0%6.0%8.2% UKIP5.2%1.2%24,30366.6%+6.0
2017Lab holdLuciana Berger79.6%12.0%6.5%-1.4%0.5%29,46669.9%+3.3
2019notionalLabour winnerPaula Barker 2019 MP, pre-review boundary71.6%9.6%8.0%-6.2%4.6%31,92672.4%+2.5
2024Lab holdPaula Barker58.0%4.7%6.9%8.7% Ref17.0%4.7%16,30456.4%-16.0

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Liverpool Wavertree

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Liverpool Wavertree. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.