Cardiff East
Wales · Borough constituency · Cardiff borough
About the Cardiff East constituency
Cardiff East is a borough constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Jo Stevens (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.5% to 17.2% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 9,097 votes on a 53.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 24.7% and Plaid Cymru on 20.8%, a margin of 3.9 points.
Who lives in Cardiff East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Cardiff East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Cardiff East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Cardiff East voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Cardiff East sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Cardiff East | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf | 99% | Plaid Cymru 37.0% | Reform UK 19.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Labour, 1 Green |
| Caerdydd Penarth | 1% | Plaid Cymru 41.0% | Reform UK 17.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Green, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Cardiff East within Cardiff
Cardiff East sits entirely within Cardiff Council. Cardiff was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cardiff | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2025 | Trowbridge | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 40% LD 24% Lab 21% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | Llanrumney | Lab HOLD | Lab 39% Ref 33% LD 15% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adamsdown | Labour 45.8%vs Reform 13.9% | 2022 Labour 63.0%vs Lib Dem 18.4% | - | - |
| Cyncoed | Labour 29.8%vs Lib Dem 29.5% | 2022 Lib Dem 54.3%vs Labour 21.4% | - | - |
| Llanrumney | Labour 42.5%vs Reform 15.5% | 2022 Labour 65.7%vs Conservative 18.1% | - | - |
| Pentwyn | Labour 39.0%vs Lib Dem 22.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 43.8%vs Labour 42.0% | - | - |
| Penylan | Labour 36.4%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 47.4%vs Labour 33.9% | - | - |
| Plasnewydd | Labour 47.0%vs Plaid Cymru 12.6% | 2022 Labour 63.1%vs Others 18.4% | - | - |
| Rumney | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 15.8% | 2022 Labour 55.2%vs Conservative 32.3% | - | - |
| Trowbridge | Labour 41.1%vs Reform 16.8% | 2022 Labour 58.4%vs Others 19.3% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Cardiff East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Cardiff East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Alun Michael Cardiff South and Penarth MP | 38.9% | 28.3% | 22.3% | 4,709 | 60.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Doughty Cardiff South and Penarth MP | 42.8% | 26.8% | 5.0% | 7,453 | 61.4%+1.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Doughty Cardiff South and Penarth MP | 59.5% | 30.2% | 2.8% | 14,864 | 66.3%+4.9 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Stephen Doughty Cardiff South and Penarth MP, pre-review boundary | 59.2% | 22.7% | 12.3% | 17,079 | 64.6% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Jo Stevens | 40.5% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 9,097 | 53.7%-10.9 |
Cardiff East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Cardiff South and Penarth (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Cardiff East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cardiff East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave37.4 / 31.3vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3540.6 / 43.4vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.8 / 47.9vs 61.9
- ↓Leave37.4 / 38.8vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3540.6 / 45.3vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.8 / 52.6vs 61.9
- ↓Leave37.4 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3540.6 / 34.4vs 30.2
- ↓Age 65+17.4 / 20.1vs 22.7
- ↓Leave37.4 / 34.8vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.8 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent24.9 / 25.2vs 20.2
- ↓Leave37.4 / 42.8vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3540.6 / 47.7vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.8 / 51.6vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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