Constituency profile

Liverpool West Derby

North West · Borough constituency

Ian Byrne MP
Sitting MP

Ian Byrne

Labour

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
45.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -6.1pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +39.3pp
vs Reform UK 21.4%
NorthernBrexit-marginalWorking-class profile

About the Liverpool West Derby constituency

Liverpool West Derby is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Ian Byrne (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 66.6% to 12.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 20,423 votes on a 54.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 60.8% and Reform UK on 21.4%, a margin of 39.3 points.

Who lives in Liverpool West Derby? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
45.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
25.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
56.8%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
42.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
39.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
20.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
31.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Liverpool West Derby vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 20,423 votes (53.8pp) · turnout 54.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Liverpool West Derby

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Liverpool West Derby within Liverpool and Knowsley

Liverpool West Derby crosses council boundaries: Liverpool (80%), Knowsley (20%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Liverpool
51 LSOAs
80%
Knowsley
13 LSOAs
20%View projection ›

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
5 Jul 2024Broadgreen
Liverpool
Lab HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BroadgreenLabour 66.1%vs Reform 11.2%2023 Labour 56.9%vs Lib Dem 31.1%-34.4%
Knotty Ash & Dovecot ParkLabour 72.0%vs Reform 11.8%2023 Labour 83.6%vs Green 5.9%--
Old Swan EastLabour 69.1%vs Reform 12.5%2023 Labour 47.6%vs Others 40.4%--
Old Swan WestLabour 66.4%vs Reform 13.3%2023 Labour 67.0%vs Others 12.0%--
Page MossLabour 59.1%vs Reform 16.8%May 2026 Green 37.6%vs Labour 31.7%
Labour→Green
+28.6pp
21.1%
Sandfield ParkLabour 69.1%vs Reform 12.8%2023 Labour 55.1%vs Others 20.5%--
StoneycroftLabour 59.5%vs Reform 14.0%2023 Others 71.1%vs Labour 24.2%--
SwansideLabour 62.6%vs Reform 13.6%May 2026 Labour 51.6%vs Reform 29.5%
Labour share
-11.0pp
30.6%
Tuebrook Breckside ParkLabour 58.1%vs Reform 14.5%2023 Others 55.8%vs Labour 35.7%--
Tuebrook LarkhillLabour 62.1%vs Reform 15.2%2023 Others 57.8%vs Labour 38.2%--
West Derby DeysbrookLabour 72.6%vs Reform 11.5%2023 Labour 66.3%vs Independent 13.4%--
West Derby LeyfieldLabour 67.6%vs Reform 11.1%2023 Labour 48.4%vs Lib Dem 44.3%--
West Derby MuirheadLabour 69.6%vs Reform 12.1%2023 Labour 51.6%vs Others 30.2%--
Yew TreeLabour 74.0%vs Reform 10.9%2023 Labour 69.4%vs Independent 16.6%-16.6%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Liverpool West Derby at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Liverpool West Derby at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdStephen Twigg64.1%9.3%12.5%3.1% UKIP-11.0%18,46756.7%
2015Lab holdStephen Twigg75.2%6.6%2.3%8.5% UKIP2.4%5.0%27,36764.5%+7.8
2017Lab holdStephen Twigg82.7%9.9%1.2%-0.7%5.4%32,90869.3%+4.8
2019notionalLabour winnerIan Byrne 2019 MP, pre-review boundary77.9%8.6%2.7%-1.9%8.9%32,32166.0%-3.3
2024Lab holdIan Byrne66.6%4.1%3.4%12.8% Ref7.0%6.1%20,42354.3%-11.7

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Liverpool West Derby

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Liverpool West Derby. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.