Bootle
North West · Borough constituency · Sefton borough
About the Bootle constituency
Bootle is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Peter Dowd (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 68.8% to 12.2% for Reform UK, a majority of 21,983 votes on a 53.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 57.7% and Reform UK on 23.3%, a margin of 34.4 points.
Who lives in Bootle? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bootle vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bootle
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bootle within Sefton
Bootle sits entirely within Sefton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Sefton | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Church | Labour 67.8%vs Reform 11.7% | 2024 Green 50.2%vs Labour 46.5% | - | 30.9% |
| Derby | Labour 69.8%vs Reform 12.0% | 2024 Labour 78.9%vs Reform 6.1% | - | 22.2% |
| Ford | Labour 69.0%vs Reform 13.4% | May 2026 Labour 42.7%vs Others 29.3% | Labour share -26.3pp | - |
| Linacre | Labour 66.5%vs Reform 13.6% | 2024 Labour 85.5%vs Lib Dem 8.2% | - | 18.1% |
| Litherland | Labour 69.5%vs Reform 13.1% | May 2026 Labour 38.0%vs Reform 30.6% | Labour share -31.5pp | - |
| Netherton and Orrell | Labour 69.3%vs Reform 11.2% | 2024 Labour 77.9%vs Others 8.1% | - | 21.9% |
| St Oswald | Labour 66.5%vs Reform 13.8% | 2024 Labour 78.6%vs Others 7.9% | - | 20.1% |
| Victoria | Labour 70.4%vs Reform 10.0% | 2024 Labour 68.7%vs Lib Dem 13.0% | - | 33.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bootle at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bootle at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Joe Benton | 66.4% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 21,181 | 57.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Peter Dowd | 74.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 28,704 | 64.4%+6.6 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Peter Dowd | 84.0% | 12.0% | 1.7% | 36,200 | 69.0%+4.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Peter Dowd 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 79.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 34,556 | 65.4%-3.6 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Peter Dowd | 68.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 21,983 | 53.2%-12.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bootle
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bootle. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent27.0 / 27.2vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate24.0 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.5 / 52.3vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent27.0 / 27.4vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate24.0 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.3 / 27.7vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied52.5 / 53.8vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate24.0 / 28.0vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent27.0 / 22.2vs 16.8
- ↑Social rent27.0 / 24.3vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied52.5 / 55.3vs 61.9
- ↑No quals24.3 / 21.3vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate24.0 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent27.0 / 22.6vs 16.8
- ↑No quals24.3 / 21.7vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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