Liverpool Walton
North West · Borough constituency
About the Liverpool Walton constituency
Liverpool Walton is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Dan Carden (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 70.6% to 15.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 20,245 votes on a 53.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 63.2% and Reform UK on 24.2%, a margin of 39.1 points.
Who lives in Liverpool Walton? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Liverpool Walton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Liverpool Walton
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Liverpool Walton within Liverpool and Sefton
Liverpool Walton crosses council boundaries: Liverpool (93%), Sefton (7%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 93% | — |
| Sefton | 7% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Clubmoor East | Lab HOLD | — |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Fazakerley North | Lab HOLD | — |
| 18 Sep 2023 | Fazakerley East | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clubmoor East | Labour 68.8%vs Reform 17.2% | 2023 Labour 71.3%vs Others 11.2% | - | 19.0% |
| Clubmoor West | Labour 72.2%vs Reform 16.4% | 2023 Labour 72.3%vs Independent 18.5% | - | 23.5% |
| County | Labour 75.3%vs Reform 13.7% | 2023 Labour 61.7%vs Independent 30.5% | - | 19.8% |
| Croxteth | Labour 75.6%vs Reform 13.4% | 2023 Labour 82.5%vs Independent 9.9% | - | 20.6% |
| Croxteth Country Park | Labour 73.1%vs Reform 15.0% | 2023 Labour 59.1%vs Others 21.0% | - | 27.9% |
| Fazakerley East | Labour 64.5%vs Reform 16.8% | 2023 Labour 67.7%vs Others 32.3% | - | 20.5% |
| Fazakerley North | Labour 69.6%vs Reform 15.8% | 2023 Labour 65.4%vs Independent 16.4% | - | 25.2% |
| Fazakerley West | Labour 69.1%vs Reform 15.3% | 2023 Labour 77.6%vs Lib Dem 16.4% | - | - |
| Molyneux | Labour 63.3%vs Reform 14.8% | 2024 Labour 75.0%vs Conservative 9.2% | - | 27.0% |
| Norris Green | Labour 73.8%vs Reform 15.1% | 2023 Labour 79.3%vs Independent 6.1% | - | 22.2% |
| Orrell Park | Labour 64.0%vs Reform 17.6% | 2023 Others 77.0%vs Labour 19.4% | - | - |
| Tuebrook Larkhill | Labour 62.1%vs Reform 15.2% | 2023 Others 57.8%vs Labour 38.2% | - | - |
| Walton | Labour 68.6%vs Reform 15.9% | 2023 Labour 63.0%vs Lib Dem 17.1% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Liverpool Walton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Liverpool Walton at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Steve Rotheram | 72.0% | 6.5% | 14.2% | 19,818 | 54.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Steve Rotheram | 81.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 27,777 | 62.0%+7.2 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Dan Carden | 85.7% | 8.6% | 1.5% | 32,551 | 67.3%+5.3 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Dan Carden 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 82.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | 33,729 | 65.4%-1.9 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Dan Carden | 70.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 20,245 | 53.2%-12.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Liverpool Walton
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Liverpool Walton. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent27.2 / 27.4vs 16.8
- ↑No quals26.8 / 27.7vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent27.2 / 27.0vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 24.0vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.3 / 52.5vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 26.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.8 / 25.1vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied52.3 / 56.8vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied52.3 / 53.8vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 28.0vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent27.2 / 22.2vs 16.8
- ↑Social rent27.2 / 24.3vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied52.3 / 55.3vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 29.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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