Constituency profile

Liverpool Walton

North West · Borough constituency

Dan Carden MP
Sitting MP

Dan Carden

Labour

First elected June 2017

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
48.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -3.2pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +39.1pp
vs Reform UK 24.2%
NorthernBrexit-marginalWorking-class profile

About the Liverpool Walton constituency

Liverpool Walton is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Dan Carden (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 70.6% to 15.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 20,245 votes on a 53.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 63.2% and Reform UK on 24.2%, a margin of 39.1 points.

Who lives in Liverpool Walton? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
48.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
22.9%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
26.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
52.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
47.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
38.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
19.8%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
31.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Liverpool Walton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 20,245 votes (54.9pp) · turnout 53.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Liverpool Walton

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Liverpool Walton within Liverpool and Sefton

Liverpool Walton crosses council boundaries: Liverpool (93%), Sefton (7%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Liverpool
63 LSOAs
93%
Sefton
5 LSOAs
7%View projection ›

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
5 Jul 2024Clubmoor East
Liverpool
Lab HOLD
5 Jul 2024Fazakerley North
Liverpool
Lab HOLD
18 Sep 2023Fazakerley East
Liverpool
Lab HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Clubmoor EastLabour 68.8%vs Reform 17.2%2023 Labour 71.3%vs Others 11.2%-19.0%
Clubmoor WestLabour 72.2%vs Reform 16.4%2023 Labour 72.3%vs Independent 18.5%-23.5%
CountyLabour 75.3%vs Reform 13.7%2023 Labour 61.7%vs Independent 30.5%-19.8%
CroxtethLabour 75.6%vs Reform 13.4%2023 Labour 82.5%vs Independent 9.9%-20.6%
Croxteth Country ParkLabour 73.1%vs Reform 15.0%2023 Labour 59.1%vs Others 21.0%-27.9%
Fazakerley EastLabour 64.5%vs Reform 16.8%2023 Labour 67.7%vs Others 32.3%-20.5%
Fazakerley NorthLabour 69.6%vs Reform 15.8%2023 Labour 65.4%vs Independent 16.4%-25.2%
Fazakerley WestLabour 69.1%vs Reform 15.3%2023 Labour 77.6%vs Lib Dem 16.4%--
MolyneuxLabour 63.3%vs Reform 14.8%2024 Labour 75.0%vs Conservative 9.2%-27.0%
Norris GreenLabour 73.8%vs Reform 15.1%2023 Labour 79.3%vs Independent 6.1%-22.2%
Orrell ParkLabour 64.0%vs Reform 17.6%2023 Others 77.0%vs Labour 19.4%--
Tuebrook LarkhillLabour 62.1%vs Reform 15.2%2023 Others 57.8%vs Labour 38.2%--
WaltonLabour 68.6%vs Reform 15.9%2023 Labour 63.0%vs Lib Dem 17.1%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Liverpool Walton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Liverpool Walton at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdSteve Rotheram72.0%6.5%14.2%2.6% UKIP-4.6%19,81854.8%
2015Lab holdSteve Rotheram81.3%4.7%2.3%9.0% UKIP2.5%0.2%27,77762.0%+7.2
2017Lab holdDan Carden85.7%8.6%1.5%-1.2%2.9%32,55167.3%+5.3
2019notionalLabour winnerDan Carden 2019 MP, pre-review boundary82.4%9.9%2.3%-1.8%3.6%33,72965.4%-1.9
2024Lab holdDan Carden70.6%3.5%2.6%15.7% Ref6.5%1.2%20,24553.2%-12.2

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Liverpool Walton

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Liverpool Walton. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.