Cheltenham
South West · Borough constituency · Cheltenham borough
About the Cheltenham constituency
Cheltenham is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Max Wilkinson (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 50.6% to 36.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,210 votes on a 65.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 41.6% and the Conservatives on 28.2%, a margin of 13.4 points.
Who lives in Cheltenham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Cheltenham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Cheltenham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Cheltenham within Cheltenham
Cheltenham sits entirely within Cheltenham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Saints | Lib Dem 54.1%vs Conservative 32.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.0%vs Green 28.9% | Lib Dem share -9.0pp | 47.9% |
| Battledown | Lib Dem 44.5%vs Conservative 43.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 47.4%vs Conservative 23.1% | Lib Dem share +2.9pp | 48.9% |
| Benhall, the Reddings & Fiddler's Green | Lib Dem 52.6%vs Conservative 35.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.6%vs Reform 23.9% | Lib Dem share -6.0pp | 51.3% |
| Charlton Kings | Lib Dem 52.0%vs Conservative 37.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.4%vs Green 24.1% | Lib Dem share -12.5pp | 55.4% |
| Charlton Park | Lib Dem 50.8%vs Conservative 39.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.5%vs Conservative 31.4% | Lib Dem share -12.3pp | 58.4% |
| College | Lib Dem 54.7%vs Conservative 32.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 50.0%vs Green 16.8% | Lib Dem share -4.7pp | 47.3% |
| Hesters Way | Lib Dem 51.1%vs Conservative 34.1% | May 2026 Reform 31.7%vs Lib Dem 30.5% | Lib Dem→Reform +26.2pp | 29.0% |
| Lansdown | Lib Dem 46.3%vs Conservative 38.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.6%vs Conservative 27.3% | Lib Dem share -4.7pp | 46.3% |
| Leckhampton | Lib Dem 47.9%vs Conservative 38.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 53.9%vs Conservative 20.8% | Lib Dem share +5.9pp | 58.3% |
| Oakley | Lib Dem 53.4%vs Conservative 31.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.1%vs Reform 33.2% | Lib Dem share -10.3pp | 36.2% |
| Park | Lib Dem 48.3%vs Conservative 40.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.9%vs Conservative 31.5% | Lib Dem share -6.5pp | 55.5% |
| Pittville | Lib Dem 47.5%vs Conservative 38.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.0%vs Green 20.4% | Lib Dem share -2.5pp | 50.9% |
| St Mark's | Lib Dem 53.1%vs Conservative 31.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.9%vs Reform 25.6% | Lib Dem share -9.2pp | 39.0% |
| St Paul's | Lib Dem 50.2%vs Conservative 26.7% | May 2026 Green 50.5%vs Lib Dem 26.1% | Lib Dem→Green +31.3pp | 33.5% |
| St Peter's | Lib Dem 52.8%vs Conservative 31.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.4%vs Green 22.5% | Lib Dem share -8.3pp | 42.3% |
| Up Hatherley | Lib Dem 51.6%vs Conservative 35.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 51.2%vs Reform 19.8% | Lib Dem share -0.4pp | 49.4% |
| Warden Hill | Lib Dem 51.7%vs Conservative 38.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 52.1%vs Reform 21.0% | Lib Dem share +0.4pp | 51.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Cheltenham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Cheltenham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Martin Horwood | 5.1% | 41.2% | 50.5% | 4,920 | 66.8% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Alex Chalk | 7.3% | 46.1% | 34.0% | 6,516 | 69.5%+2.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Alex Chalk | 9.5% | 46.7% | 42.2% | 2,569 | 72.3%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Alex Chalk 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 4.8% | 48.5% | 46.0% | 1,421 | 75.5%+3.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Max Wilkinson | 5.4% | 36.1% | 50.6% | 7,210 | 65.1%-10.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Cheltenham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cheltenham. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave42.9 / 44.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 41.5vs 33.7
- ↓No quals12.7 / 13.3vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 46.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave42.9 / 41.2vs 53.2
- ↓No quals12.7 / 10.6vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 46.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave42.9 / 39.6vs 53.2
- ↓No quals12.7 / 10.7vs 18.0
- ↓Leave42.9 / 44.5vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent11.9 / 11.3vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 38.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave42.9 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.8 / 43.0vs 33.7
- ↓No quals12.7 / 14.2vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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