Winchester
South East · County constituency · Winchester borough
About the Winchester constituency
Winchester is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Dr Danny Chambers (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 52.5% to 28.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 13,821 votes on a 72.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 50.7% and the Conservatives on 21.4%, a margin of 29.3 points.
Who lives in Winchester? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Winchester vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Winchester
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Winchester within Winchester
Winchester sits entirely within Winchester Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Winchester | 100% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bishops Waltham | LD | LD 38% Con 24% Ref 19% | 51.7% |
| Itchen Valley | LD | LD 58% Ref 17% Con 16% | 53.0% |
| Meon Valley | LD | LD 30% Grn 25% Ref 22% | 46.2% |
| Winchester Downlands | LD | LD 42% Con 36% Ref 12% | 55.7% |
| Winchester Eastgate | LD | LD 46% Grn 20% Con 19% | 47.0% |
| Winchester Westgate | LD | LD 51% Grn 18% Con 17% | 50.2% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alresford and Itchen Valley | Lib Dem 55.5%vs Conservative 28.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 52.7%vs Conservative 24.1% | Lib Dem share -2.8pp | 53.9% |
| Badger Farm and Oliver's Battery | Lib Dem 53.6%vs Conservative 32.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.3%vs Conservative 31.1% | Lib Dem share -8.3pp | 59.3% |
| Bishop's Waltham | Lib Dem 50.1%vs Conservative 30.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.7%vs Conservative 25.1% | Lib Dem share -6.4pp | 50.4% |
| Central Meon Valley | Lib Dem 42.5%vs Conservative 32.9% | May 2026 Green 38.7%vs Conservative 21.5% | Lib Dem→Green +26.9pp | 53.3% |
| Colden Common and Twyford | Lib Dem 50.6%vs Conservative 30.5% | May 2026 Others 49.0%vs Lib Dem 22.8% | Lib Dem→Others +38.4pp | 51.2% |
| St Barnabas | Lib Dem 56.8%vs Conservative 26.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 53.2%vs Conservative 20.0% | Lib Dem share -3.6pp | 54.8% |
| St Bartholomew | Lib Dem 55.4%vs Conservative 22.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.1%vs Green 25.8% | Lib Dem share -7.3pp | 46.8% |
| St Luke | Lib Dem 50.9%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2024 Lib Dem 57.8%vs Conservative 19.8% | - | - |
| St Michael | Lib Dem 54.0%vs Conservative 24.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 42.5%vs Conservative 23.3% | Lib Dem share -11.5pp | 50.2% |
| St Paul | Lib Dem 58.4%vs Conservative 20.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.3%vs Green 28.4% | Lib Dem share -10.1pp | 52.0% |
| The Worthys | Lib Dem 56.7%vs Conservative 25.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 53.2%vs Conservative 21.5% | Lib Dem share -3.5pp | 50.6% |
| Upper Meon Valley | Lib Dem 48.0%vs Conservative 33.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.0%vs Conservative 36.3% | Lib Dem share -11.0pp | 55.3% |
| Wonston and Micheldever | Lib Dem 46.9%vs Conservative 35.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.3%vs Conservative 35.0% | Lib Dem share -5.6pp | 55.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Winchester at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Winchester at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from LD | Steve Brine | 5.5% | 48.5% | 43.1% | 3,048 | 75.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Steve Brine | 8.3% | 55.0% | 24.4% | 16,914 | 74.6%-1.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Steve Brine | 10.5% | 52.0% | 34.5% | 9,999 | 78.8%+4.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Stephen Brine 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 4.8% | 54.0% | 39.9% | 9,050 | 83.5%+4.7 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Danny Chambers | 5.3% | 28.2% | 52.5% | 13,821 | 72.9%-10.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Winchester
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Winchester. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave39.6 / 39.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 49.3vs 33.7
- ↓No quals10.7 / 14.2vs 18.0
- ↓Leave39.6 / 35.9vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 51.8vs 33.7
- ↓No quals10.7 / 12.8vs 18.0
- ↓Leave39.6 / 36.3vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 49.6vs 33.7
- ↓No quals10.7 / 12.4vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 46.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.6 / 40.7vs 53.2
- ↓No quals10.7 / 14.3vs 18.0
- ↓Leave39.6 / 44.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 41.5vs 33.7
- ↓No quals10.7 / 13.3vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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