Dunfermline and Dollar
Scotland · County constituency
About the Dunfermline and Dollar constituency
Dunfermline and Dollar is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Graeme Downie (Labour), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Dunfermline and Dollar with 45.7% of the vote, ahead of the SNP on 27.2%, a majority of 8,241 votes. Turnout was 61.2%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Labour on 29.3% and the SNP on 28.1% in Dunfermline and Dollar, a margin of 1.2 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Dunfermline and Dollar is a Remain-leaning area (an estimated 40.7% voted Leave in 2016). About 46.9% of residents hold a degree, 70.2% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 43 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the SNP 3 times, Labour 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Dunfermline and Dollar? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dunfermline and Dollar vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dunfermline and Dollar
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Dunfermline and Dollar voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Dunfermline and Dollar crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Dunfermline (74%), Clackmannanshire and Dunblane (22%), Cowdenbeath (4%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Dunfermline and Dollar | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 74% | SNP 41.6% | Labour 25.7% | Shirley-Anne Somerville |
| Clackmannanshire and Dunblane | 22% | SNP 37.8% | Labour 24.6% | Keith Brown |
| Cowdenbeath | 4% | SNP 44.3% | Labour 23.3% | David Barratt |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Dunfermline and Dollar within Council layer
No council overlap data available for Dunfermline and Dollar.
Council overlap
No council overlap data.
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2024 | West Fife and Coastal Villages | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dunfermline and Dollar at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dunfermline and Dollar at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Thomas Docherty Dunfermline and West Fife MP | 46.3% | 6.8% | 35.1% | 5,470 | 66.5% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from Lab | Douglas Chapman Dunfermline and West Fife MP | 31.7% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 10,352 | 71.6%+5.1 |
| 2017predecessor | SNP hold | Douglas Chapman Dunfermline and West Fife MP | 33.9% | 24.7% | 5.9% | 844 | 67.4%-4.2 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Douglas Chapman Dunfermline and West Fife MP, pre-review boundary | 23.6% | 21.5% | 8.4% | 10,073 | 68.7% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Graeme Downie | 45.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8,241 | 61.2%-7.5 |
Dunfermline and Dollar was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Dunfermline and West Fife (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Dunfermline and Dollar
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dunfermline and Dollar. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate46.9 / 45.4vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.7 / 41.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 11.9vs 20.2
- ↓Leave40.7 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.9 / 45.4vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate46.9 / 49.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.7 / 39.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate46.9 / 45.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.7 / 35.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 10.4vs 20.2
- ↓Leave40.7 / 36.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 9.3vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate46.9 / 42.0vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.