Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Scotland · Burgh constituency
About the Paisley and Renfrewshire North constituency
Paisley and Renfrewshire North is a burgh constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Alison Taylor (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.1% to 31.9% for the SNP, a majority of 6,333 votes on a 58.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 34.0% and Labour on 32.2%, a margin of 1.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Paisley and Renfrewshire North? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Paisley and Renfrewshire North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Paisley and Renfrewshire North voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Paisley and Renfrewshire North crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Renfrewshire North and Cardonald (76%), Paisley (16%), Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley (4%), Dumbarton (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Paisley and Renfrewshire North's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renfrewshire North and Cardonald | 76% | SNP 40.9% | Labour 26.9% | Michelle Campbell |
| Paisley | 16% | SNP 42.6% | Labour 32.8% | George Adam |
| Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley | 4% | SNP 40.4% | Labour 30.8% | Tom Arthur |
| Dumbarton | 1% | Labour 39.8% | SNP 34.2% | Jackie Baillie |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Paisley and Renfrewshire North within Renfrewshire and Glasgow City
Paisley and Renfrewshire North crosses council boundaries: Renfrewshire (83%), Glasgow City (17%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Renfrewshire | 83% |
| Glasgow City | 17% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and Langbank | Labour 41.7%vs SNP 32.0% | 2022 SNP 36.3%Conservative 34.4%, Labour 23.4%, Lib Dem 6.0% | - | 39.9% |
| Erskine and Inchinnan | Labour 49.7%vs SNP 33.2% | 2022 SNP 43.6%Labour 33.6%, Conservative 17.7%, Lib Dem 3.1%, Others 1.9% | - | 36.1% |
| Renfrew North | Labour 46.8%vs SNP 36.0% | No council data | - | - |
| Renfrew South and Gallowhill | Labour 47.8%vs SNP 34.4% | 2022 SNP 52.4%Labour 35.7%, Conservative 11.9% | - | 40.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Paisley and Renfrewshire North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Paisley and Renfrewshire North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Jim Sheridan | 54.0% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 19.1% | 15,280 | 68.6% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Gavin Newlands | 32.7% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 50.7% | 9,076 | 76.2%+7.6 |
| 2017 | SNP hold | Gavin Newlands | 31.8% | 27.5% | 3.2% | 37.4% | 2,613 | 69.1%-7.1 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Gavin Newlands 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.7% | 19.5% | 7.6% | 48.9% | 11,753 | 66.9%-2.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Alison Taylor | 47.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 31.9% | 6,333 | 58.4%-8.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Paisley and Renfrewshire North. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave35.5 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 9.0vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 43.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave35.5 / 36.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 9.3vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 42.0vs 33.7
- ↓Leave35.5 / 34.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 43.0vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Leave35.5 / 37.9vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 7.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 46.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave35.5 / 40.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 10.6vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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