Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Scotland · Burgh constituency · Renfrewshire borough
About the Paisley and Renfrewshire North constituency
Paisley and Renfrewshire North is a burgh constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Alison Taylor (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.1% to 31.9% for the SNP, a majority of 6,333 votes on a 58.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 34.7% and Labour on 33.9%, a margin of 0.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Paisley and Renfrewshire North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Paisley and Renfrewshire North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Paisley and Renfrewshire North voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Paisley and Renfrewshire North crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Renfrewshire North and Cardonald (76%), Paisley (16%), Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley (4%), Dumbarton (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renfrewshire North and Cardonald | 76% | SNP 41.6% | Labour 27.4% | Michelle Campbell |
| Paisley | 16% | SNP 42.6% | Labour 32.8% | George Adam |
| Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley | 4% | SNP 40.4% | Labour 30.8% | Tom Arthur |
| Dumbarton | 1% | Labour 39.8% | SNP 34.2% | Jackie Baillie |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Paisley and Renfrewshire North within Renfrewshire
Paisley and Renfrewshire North sits entirely within Renfrewshire Council. Renfrewshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Renfrewshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and Langbank | Labour 41.7%vs SNP 32.0% | 2022 SNP 36.3%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 39.9% |
| Erskine and Inchinnan | Labour 49.7%vs SNP 33.2% | 2022 SNP 43.6%vs Labour 33.6% | - | 36.1% |
| Renfrew North | Labour 46.8%vs SNP 36.0% | No council data | - | - |
| Renfrew South and Gallowhill | Labour 47.8%vs SNP 34.4% | 2022 SNP 52.4%vs Labour 35.7% | - | 40.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Paisley and Renfrewshire North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Paisley and Renfrewshire North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Jim Sheridan | 54.0% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 15,280 | 68.6% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Gavin Newlands | 32.7% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 9,076 | 76.2%+7.6 |
| 2017 | SNP hold | Gavin Newlands | 31.8% | 27.5% | 3.2% | 2,613 | 69.1%-7.1 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Gavin Newlands 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.7% | 19.5% | 7.6% | 11,753 | 66.9%-2.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Alison Taylor | 47.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 6,333 | 58.4%-8.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Paisley and Renfrewshire North. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave35.5 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 9.0vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 43.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave35.5 / 36.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 9.3vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 42.0vs 33.7
- ↓Leave35.5 / 34.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 43.0vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Leave35.5 / 37.9vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 7.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 46.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave35.5 / 40.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.4 / 10.6vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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