Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch
Scotland · County constituency
About the Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch constituency
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Katrina Murray (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.2% to 35.1% for the SNP, a majority of 4,144 votes on a 58.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 39.7% and Labour on 26.5%, a margin of 13.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Cumbernauld and Kilsyth (70%), Strathkelvin and Bearsden (16%), Coatbridge and Chryston (10%), Falkirk West (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbernauld and Kilsyth | 70% | SNP 50.8% | Labour 23.8% | Jamie Hepburn |
| Strathkelvin and Bearsden | 16% | Liberal Democrats 39.5% | SNP 33.0% | Adam Harley |
| Coatbridge and Chryston | 10% | SNP 49.1% | Labour 26.1% | Fulton MacGregor |
| Falkirk West | 1% | SNP 41.2% | Reform UK 22.6% | Gary Bouse |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch within North Lanarkshire and East Dunbartonshire
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch crosses council boundaries: North Lanarkshire (85%), East Dunbartonshire (15%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North Lanarkshire | 85% |
| East Dunbartonshire | 15% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbernauld North | Labour 44.0%vs SNP 40.3% | 2022 SNP 50.3%Labour 27.7%, Conservative 14.2%, Green 4.1%, Lib Dem 2.5%, Others 1.2% | - | 45.9% |
| Cumbernauld South | Labour 46.9%vs SNP 37.4% | 2022 SNP 51.8%Labour 35.5%, Conservative 7.9%, Others 4.8% | - | 44.7% |
| Kilsyth | Labour 58.6%vs SNP 29.0% | 2022 Labour 52.4%SNP 37.4%, Conservative 6.5%, Others 2.0%, Lib Dem 1.7% | - | 43.9% |
| Kirkintilloch East and Twechar | Labour 40.6%vs SNP 31.8% | No council data | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Gregg McClymont Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East MP | 57.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 23.8% | 13,755 | 64.3% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from Lab | Stuart McDonald Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East MP | 30.0% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 59.9% | 14,752 | 73.6%+9.3 |
| 2017predecessor | SNP hold | Stuart McDonald Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East MP | 33.9% | 18.3% | 2.8% | 43.6% | 4,264 | 65.9%-7.7 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Stuart C. McDonald Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East MP, pre-review boundary | 27.1% | 15.0% | 5.6% | 52.0% | 12,005 | 68.3% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Katrina Murray | 45.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 35.1% | 4,144 | 58.2%-10.1 |
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave36.6 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.3 / 10.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.0 / 40.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave36.6 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.3 / 9.0vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.0 / 43.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave36.6 / 37.9vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.3 / 7.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.0 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave36.6 / 35.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.3 / 10.4vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.0 / 45.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave36.6 / 35.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.3 / 7.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.0 / 46.2vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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