Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Scotland · County constituency · Renfrewshire
About the Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency
Paisley and Renfrewshire South is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Johanna Baxter (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.4% to 31.6% for the SNP, a majority of 6,527 votes on a 57.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 34.0% and Labour on 33.7%, a margin of 0.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Paisley and Renfrewshire South? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Paisley and Renfrewshire South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Paisley and Renfrewshire South voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Paisley and Renfrewshire South crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley (81%), Paisley (17%), Cunninghame North (2%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Paisley and Renfrewshire South's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley | 81% | SNP 40.4% | Labour 30.8% | Tom Arthur |
| Paisley | 17% | SNP 42.6% | Labour 32.8% | George Adam |
| Cunninghame North | 2% | SNP 39.2% | Labour 20.0% | Kenneth Gibson |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Paisley and Renfrewshire South within Renfrewshire
Paisley and Renfrewshire South sits entirely within Renfrewshire Council. Renfrewshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Renfrewshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston, Crosslee and Linwood | Labour 48.2%vs SNP 29.8% | 2022 SNP 39.1%Labour 37.1%, Conservative 23.8% | - | 44.0% |
| Johnstone North, Kilbarchan and Lochwinnoch | Labour 51.3%vs SNP 32.2% | No council data | - | - |
| Johnstone South, Elderslie and Howwood | Labour 55.4%vs SNP 29.9% | No council data | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Paisley and Renfrewshire South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Paisley and Renfrewshire South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Douglas Alexander | 59.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 18.1% | 16,614 | 65.4% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Mhairi Black | 38.6% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 50.9% | 5,684 | 75.4%+10.0 |
| 2017 | SNP hold | Mhairi Black | 34.6% | 19.5% | 3.2% | 40.7% | 2,541 | 68.0%-7.4 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Mhairi Black 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 25.8% | 18.2% | 6.2% | 49.8% | 11,023 | 66.0%-2.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Johanna Baxter | 47.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 31.6% | 6,527 | 57.7%-8.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Paisley and Renfrewshire South. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave34.8 / 35.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.0 / 45.3vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 10.4vs 20.2
- ↓Leave34.8 / 36.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.0 / 42.0vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 9.3vs 20.2
- ↓Leave34.8 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 10.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.0 / 40.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave34.8 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.0 / 43.1vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 9.0vs 20.2
- ↓Leave34.8 / 39.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 9.8vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent24.2 / 24.4vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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