Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Scotland · County constituency · East Ayrshire borough
About the Kilmarnock and Loudoun constituency
Kilmarnock and Loudoun is a county constituency in Scotland, covering most or all of East Ayrshire. The sitting MP is Lillian Jones (Labour), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Kilmarnock and Loudoun with 44.9% of the vote, ahead of the SNP on 32.8%, a majority of 5,119 votes. Turnout was 56.9%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the SNP on 38.0% and Labour on 28.4% in Kilmarnock and Loudoun, a margin of 9.6 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Kilmarnock and Loudoun is a Remain-leaning area (an estimated 39.5% voted Leave in 2016). About 40.2% of residents hold a degree, 64.6% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 45 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the SNP 3 times, Labour 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Kilmarnock and Loudoun? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Kilmarnock and Loudoun vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Kilmarnock and Loudoun voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Kilmarnock and Loudoun crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley (46%), Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley (39%), Cunninghame South (13%), Clydesdale (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley | 46% | SNP 33.2% | Reform UK 24.1% | Katie Hagmann |
| Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley | 39% | SNP 40.9% | Labour 25.6% | Alan Brown |
| Cunninghame South | 13% | SNP 38.8% | Labour 24.6% | Patricia Gibson |
| Clydesdale | 1% | SNP 36.3% | Labour 24.1% | Màiri McAllan |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Kilmarnock and Loudoun within East Ayrshire
The Westminster constituency of Kilmarnock and Loudoun sits entirely within East Ayrshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and East Ayrshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| East Ayrshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 2025 | Kilmarnock North | SNP GAIN from Lab | — |
| 15 Nov 2024 | Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Kilmarnock and Loudoun at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Kilmarnock and Loudoun at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Cathie Jamieson | 52.5% | 14.2% | 7.3% | 12,378 | 62.8% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab Coop | Alan Brown | 30.4% | 12.5% | 1.5% | 13,638 | 71.6%+8.8 |
| 2017 | SNP hold | Alan Brown | 28.9% | 26.7% | 2.1% | 6,269 | 63.4%-8.2 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Alan Brown 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 18.9% | 24.3% | 5.1% | 12,659 | 63.7%+0.3 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Lillian Jones | 44.9% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 5,119 | 56.9%-6.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kilmarnock and Loudoun. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave39.5 / 41.2vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.8 / 8.3vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent24.4 / 25.8vs 16.8
- ↓Leave39.5 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.8 / 10.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.2 / 40.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.5 / 35.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.8 / 10.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.2 / 42.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.5 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.8 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.2 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.5 / 42.1vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.8 / 8.7vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent24.4 / 25.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.