Constituency profile

Alloa and Grangemouth

Scotland · County constituency · Clackmannanshire borough

Brian Leishman MP
Sitting MP

Brian Leishman

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency, Clackmannanshire council
Last 5 GE winners
LSCSL
Labour 2/5, SNP 2/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
41.2% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -10.7pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +0.8pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
ScottishRemain-leaning

About the Alloa and Grangemouth constituency

Alloa and Grangemouth is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Brian Leishman (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.8% to 28.9% for the SNP, a majority of 6,122 votes on a 58.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 31.2% and Labour on 30.4%, a margin of 0.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Alloa and Grangemouth? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
41.2%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
39.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
18.2%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
64.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
34.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
44.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
23.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Alloa and Grangemouth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 6,122 votes (14.9pp) · turnout 58.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Alloa and Grangemouth

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Alloa and Grangemouth voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Alloa and Grangemouth crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Clackmannanshire and Dunblane (57%), Falkirk East and Linlithgow (25%), Falkirk West (15%), Stirling (2%), Perthshire South and Kinross-shire (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Alloa and GrangemouthWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane57%SNP 37.8%Labour 24.6%Keith Brown
Falkirk East and Linlithgow25%SNP 38.6%Labour 24.1%Martyn Day
Falkirk West15%SNP 41.2%Reform UK 22.6%Gary Bouse
Stirling2%SNP 42.4%Conservative 19.2%Alyn Smith
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire1%SNP 40.4%Conservative 26.5%Jim Fairlie

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Alloa and Grangemouth within Clackmannanshire

Alloa and Grangemouth sits entirely within Clackmannanshire Council. Clackmannanshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Clackmannanshire
1 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Bonnybridge and LarbertLabour 43.7%vs SNP 32.1%2022 SNP 33.9%vs Independent 25.2%-33.8%
Carse, Kinnaird and TrystLabour 47.4%vs SNP 31.9%2022 SNP 44.4%vs Labour 24.6%-28.2%
Clackmannanshire CentralLabour 53.2%vs SNP 27.9%2022 SNP 43.5%vs Labour 34.7%-25.0%
Clackmannanshire EastLabour 43.2%vs SNP 27.6%2022 Conservative 37.3%vs SNP 30.8%-32.9%
Clackmannanshire NorthLabour 43.7%vs SNP 33.6%2022 SNP 41.4%vs Conservative 21.9%-34.3%
Clackmannanshire SouthLabour 44.3%vs SNP 28.2%2022 SNP 37.9%vs Labour 23.1%-40.6%
Clackmannanshire WestLabour 49.3%vs SNP 31.0%2022 SNP 43.6%vs Labour 26.8%-40.8%
GrangemouthLabour 47.0%vs SNP 33.0%2022 SNP 44.9%vs Labour 23.4%-24.2%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Alloa and Grangemouth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Alloa and Grangemouth at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdGordon Banks Ochil and South Perthshire MP37.9%20.5%11.4%1.4% UKIP1.2%-5,18767.2%
2015predecessorSNP gain from LabTasmina Ahmed-Sheikh Ochil and South Perthshire MP28.4%20.7%2.6%2.3% UKIP--10,16874.8%+7.6
2017predecessorCon gain from SNPLuke Graham Ochil and South Perthshire MP20.0%41.5%3.2%---3,35970.6%-4.2
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerJohn Nicolson Ochil and South Perthshire MP, pre-review boundary14.5%24.8%5.3%0.8% Brx-54.6%12,72763.2%
2024Lab gain from SNPBrian Leishman43.8%7.6%2.8%9.2% Ref3.4%4.2%6,12258.3%-4.9

Alloa and Grangemouth was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Ochil and South Perthshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Alloa and Grangemouth

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Alloa and Grangemouth. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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