Alloa and Grangemouth
Scotland · County constituency
About the Alloa and Grangemouth constituency
Alloa and Grangemouth is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Brian Leishman (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.8% to 28.9% for the SNP, a majority of 6,122 votes on a 58.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 29.8% and Labour on 28.9%, a margin of 0.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Alloa and Grangemouth? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Alloa and Grangemouth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Alloa and Grangemouth
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Alloa and Grangemouth voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Alloa and Grangemouth crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Clackmannanshire and Dunblane (57%), Falkirk East and Linlithgow (25%), Falkirk West (15%), Stirling (2%), Perthshire South and Kinross-shire (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Alloa and Grangemouth's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clackmannanshire and Dunblane | 57% | SNP 37.8% | Labour 24.6% | Keith Brown |
| Falkirk East and Linlithgow | 25% | SNP 38.6% | Labour 24.1% | Martyn Day |
| Falkirk West | 15% | SNP 41.2% | Reform UK 22.6% | Gary Bouse |
| Stirling | 2% | SNP 42.4% | Conservative 19.2% | Alyn Smith |
| Perthshire South and Kinross-shire | 1% | SNP 40.4% | Conservative 26.5% | Jim Fairlie |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Alloa and Grangemouth within Clackmannanshire and Falkirk
Alloa and Grangemouth crosses council boundaries: Clackmannanshire (52%), Falkirk (48%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Clackmannanshire | 52% |
| Falkirk | 48% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnybridge and Larbert | Labour 43.7%vs SNP 32.1% | 2022 SNP 33.9%Independent 25.2%, Conservative 18.4%, Labour 17.6%, Green 4.9% | - | 33.8% |
| Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst | Labour 47.4%vs SNP 31.9% | 2022 SNP 44.4%Labour 24.6%, Conservative 24.1%, Green 4.1%, Lib Dem 2.9% | - | 28.2% |
| Clackmannanshire Central | Labour 53.2%vs SNP 27.9% | 2022 SNP 43.5%Labour 34.7%, Conservative 17.3%, Green 4.5% | - | 25.0% |
| Clackmannanshire East | Labour 43.2%vs SNP 27.6% | 2022 Conservative 37.3%SNP 30.8%, Labour 19.6%, Green 6.3%, Lib Dem 3.7%, Independent 2.3% | - | 32.9% |
| Clackmannanshire North | Labour 43.7%vs SNP 33.6% | 2022 SNP 41.4%Conservative 21.9%, Labour 18.7%, Independent 7.0%, Green 5.7%, Lib Dem 3.2%, Others 2.1% | - | 34.3% |
| Clackmannanshire South | Labour 44.3%vs SNP 28.2% | 2022 SNP 37.9%Labour 23.1%, Green 19.5%, Conservative 16.5%, Independent 1.8%, Others 1.2% | - | 40.6% |
| Clackmannanshire West | Labour 49.3%vs SNP 31.0% | 2022 SNP 43.6%Labour 26.8%, Conservative 22.8%, Green 4.0%, Lib Dem 2.7% | - | 40.8% |
| Grangemouth | Labour 47.0%vs SNP 33.0% | 2022 SNP 44.9%Labour 23.4%, Independent 15.2%, Conservative 13.6%, Green 2.4%, Others 0.5% | - | 24.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Alloa and Grangemouth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Alloa and Grangemouth at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Gordon Banks Ochil and South Perthshire MP | 37.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 27.6% | 5,187 | 67.2% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from Lab | Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh Ochil and South Perthshire MP | 28.4% | 20.7% | 2.6% | 46.0% | 10,168 | 74.8%+7.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Con gain from SNP | Luke Graham Ochil and South Perthshire MP | 20.0% | 41.5% | 3.2% | 35.3% | 3,359 | 70.6%-4.2 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | John Nicolson Ochil and South Perthshire MP, pre-review boundary | 14.5% | 24.8% | 5.3% | 52.7% | 12,727 | 63.2% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Brian Leishman | 43.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 28.9% | 6,122 | 58.3%-4.9 |
Alloa and Grangemouth was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Ochil and South Perthshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Alloa and Grangemouth
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Alloa and Grangemouth. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 8.7vs 20.2
- ↓Leave41.2 / 42.1vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent25.8 / 25.5vs 16.8
- ↓Leave41.2 / 39.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 9.8vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent25.8 / 24.4vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 8.8vs 20.2
- ↓Leave41.2 / 42.6vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent25.8 / 25.1vs 16.8
- ↓Leave41.2 / 43.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 11.1vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent25.8 / 22.7vs 16.8
- ↓Leave41.2 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 10.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate39.5 / 40.3vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.