Constituency profile

Bathgate and Linlithgow

Scotland · County constituency · West Lothian borough

Kirsteen Sullivan MP
Sitting MP

Kirsteen Sullivan

Labour (Co-op)

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency, West Lothian council
Last 5 GE winners
LSSSL
SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5
EU referendum 2016
42.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -9.3pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +5.0pp
vs SNP 29.6%
ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Bathgate and Linlithgow constituency

Bathgate and Linlithgow is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Kirsteen Sullivan (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.0% to 27.2% for the SNP, a majority of 8,323 votes on a 58.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.6% and the SNP on 29.6%, a margin of 5.0 points.

Who lives in Bathgate and Linlithgow? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
42.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
42.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
16.4%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
33.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
42.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
22.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Bathgate and Linlithgow vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 8,323 votes (19.8pp) · turnout 58.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bathgate and Linlithgow

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Bathgate and Linlithgow voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Bathgate and Linlithgow crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Bathgate (79%), Falkirk East and Linlithgow (18%), Almond Valley (2%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Bathgate and LinlithgowWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Bathgate79%SNP 40.7%Labour 24.0%Pauline Stafford
Falkirk East and Linlithgow18%SNP 38.6%Labour 24.1%Martyn Day
Almond Valley2%SNP 46.3%Labour 21.9%Angela Constance

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bathgate and Linlithgow within West Lothian

Bathgate and Linlithgow sits entirely within West Lothian Council. West Lothian was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
West Lothian
1 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
11 Dec 2025Whitburn & Blackburn
West Lothian
Ref GAIN from LabRef 32% Lab 28% Con 17%
14 Mar 2025Broxburn Uphall and Winchburgh
West Lothian
SNP HOLD
15 Nov 2024Whitburn and Blackburn
West Lothian
Lab HOLD
23 Aug 2024Armadale and Blackridge
West Lothian
Lab GAIN from Ind
9 Dec 2022Broxburn Uphall and Winchburgh
West Lothian
Lab HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Armadale and BlackridgeLabour 46.6%vs SNP 32.4%2022 Independent 48.9%vs SNP 22.1%-39.9%
BathgateLabour 54.3%vs SNP 28.8%2022 SNP 40.4%vs Labour 38.7%-41.0%
Bo'ness and BlacknessLabour 49.5%vs SNP 28.5%2022 Independent 40.6%vs SNP 21.6%-45.0%
Broxburn, Uphall and WinchburghLabour 43.7%vs SNP 33.4%2022 SNP 41.9%vs Labour 29.6%-21.4%
Fauldhouse and the Breich ValleyLabour 50.4%vs SNP 30.6%2022 Labour 40.2%vs SNP 38.3%-39.9%
LinlithgowLabour 38.4%vs SNP 24.1%2022 SNP 26.3%vs Lib Dem 20.3%-57.2%
Whitburn and BlackburnLabour 53.7%vs SNP 28.5%2022 SNP 38.6%vs Labour 37.4%-36.2%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bathgate and Linlithgow at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bathgate and Linlithgow at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdMichael Connarty Linlithgow and East Falkirk MP49.8%11.9%12.8%---12,55363.6%
2015predecessorSNP gain from LabMartyn Day Linlithgow and East Falkirk MP31.0%12.0%2.0%2.7% UKIP-0.2%12,93470.8%+7.2
2017predecessorSNP holdMartyn Day Linlithgow and East Falkirk MP31.1%29.1%3.4%---2,91965.1%-5.7
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerMartyn Day Linlithgow and East Falkirk MP, pre-review boundary18.8%24.6%8.2%--48.4%8,67165.9%
2024Lab gain from SNPKirsteen Sullivan47.0%7.5%5.2%8.4% Ref3.3%1.5%8,32358.3%-7.6

Bathgate and Linlithgow was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Linlithgow and East Falkirk (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Bathgate and Linlithgow

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bathgate and Linlithgow. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.