Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
Scotland · County constituency
About the Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy constituency
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Melanie Ward (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.7% to 28.0% for the SNP, a majority of 7,248 votes on a 56.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.2% and the SNP on 26.0%, a margin of 5.3 points.
Who lives in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Kirkcaldy (49%), Cowdenbeath (46%), Dunfermline (3%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirkcaldy | 49% | SNP 43.3% | Labour 26.5% | David Torrance |
| Cowdenbeath | 46% | SNP 44.3% | Labour 23.3% | David Barratt |
| Dunfermline | 3% | SNP 41.6% | Labour 25.7% | Shirley-Anne Somerville |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy within Council layer
No council overlap data available for Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy.
Council overlap
No council overlap data.
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burntisland, Kinghorn and Western Kirkcaldy | Labour 45.6%vs SNP 30.3% | 2022 SNP 37.8%vs Labour 29.4% | - | 35.5% |
| Cowdenbeath | Labour 51.9%vs SNP 30.3% | 2022 Labour 38.0%vs SNP 36.6% | - | 15.7% |
| Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay | Labour 37.5%vs SNP 32.9% | 2022 SNP 38.8%vs Conservative 29.2% | - | 53.0% |
| Kirkcaldy Central | Labour 53.5%vs SNP 28.1% | 2022 Labour 41.6%vs SNP 37.9% | - | 40.1% |
| Kirkcaldy East | Labour 52.4%vs SNP 29.5% | 2022 SNP 40.3%vs Labour 39.7% | - | 36.1% |
| Kirkcaldy North | Labour 49.5%vs SNP 27.7% | 2022 Labour 39.0%vs SNP 38.9% | - | 41.3% |
| Lochgelly and Cardenden | Labour 52.5%vs SNP 35.6% | No council data | - | - |
| Rosyth | Labour 47.4%vs SNP 30.2% | 2022 SNP 39.4%vs Labour 26.3% | - | 41.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Gordon Brown Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath MP | 64.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 23,009 | 62.3% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from Lab | Roger Mullin Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath MP | 33.4% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 9,974 | 69.6%+7.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab gain from SNP | Lesley Laird Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath MP | 36.8% | 23.3% | 2.4% | 259 | 63.5%-6.1 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Neale Hanvey Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath MP, pre-review boundary | 29.5% | 22.2% | 6.5% | 3,220 | 67.0% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Melanie Ward | 45.7% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 7,248 | 56.8%-10.2 |
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 44.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.4 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.1 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↓Leave43.4 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.1 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.4 / 39.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.1 / 9.8vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 40.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.4 / 42.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.1 / 9.7vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 42.1vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.4 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.1 / 13.0vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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