Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
Scotland · County constituency
About the Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey constituency
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Graham Leadbitter (Scottish National Party), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the SNP won with 32.1% to 30.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,001 votes on a 60.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 30.2% and the Conservatives on 27.8%, a margin of 2.4 points.
Who lives in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch (49%), Moray (39%), Inverness and Nairn (11%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch | 49% | Liberal Democrats 38.9% | SNP 36.5% | Andrew Baxter |
| Moray | 39% | SNP 38.5% | Conservative 30.4% | Laura Mitchell |
| Inverness and Nairn | 11% | SNP 30.4% | Liberal Democrats 29.2% | Emma Roddick |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey within Moray and Highland
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey crosses council boundaries: Moray (71%), Highland (29%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Moray | 71% |
| Highland | 29% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2024 | Elgin City South | Con GAIN from SNP | SNP 32% Con 32% Lab 18% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Badenoch and Strathspey | SNP 36.0%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2022 Independent 38.4%SNP 22.7%, Conservative 15.6%, Green 10.3%, Lib Dem 8.8%, Labour 4.2% | - | 35.6% |
| Culloden and Ardersier | SNP 37.1%vs Lib Dem 30.3% | 2022 SNP 37.6%Conservative 17.9%, Independent 15.8%, Lib Dem 15.3%, Labour 10.1%, Others 3.3% | - | 45.0% |
| Elgin City North | SNP 32.6%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2022 SNP 32.6%Labour 28.5%, Conservative 25.9%, Independent 4.6%, Green 4.5%, Lib Dem 3.9% | - | 39.9% |
| Elgin City South | SNP 33.7%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2022 SNP 35.5%Labour 28.1%, Conservative 26.8%, Independent 6.5%, Lib Dem 3.0% | - | 39.0% |
| Fochabers Lhanbryde | SNP 38.2%vs Conservative 35.9% | 2022 SNP 43.0%Conservative 39.8%, Labour 10.1%, Lib Dem 7.1% | - | 48.4% |
| Forres | Conservative 36.8%vs SNP 32.2% | 2022 Conservative 40.9%SNP 34.3%, Labour 10.6%, Green 9.1%, Independent 5.1% | - | 36.3% |
| Heldon and Laich | Conservative 40.1%vs SNP 32.9% | 2022 Conservative 39.7%SNP 29.5%, Independent 18.5%, Labour 7.7%, Lib Dem 4.6% | - | 33.4% |
| Nairn | SNP 32.1%vs Labour 24.5% | 2015 SNP 41.0%Independent 28.0%, Lib Dem 24.1%, Labour 6.9% | - | - |
| Speyside Glenlivet | SNP 32.3%vs Conservative 31.4% | 2022 SNP 36.8%Conservative 33.8%, Independent 20.1%, Green 8.6%, Others 0.7% | - | 45.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Danny Alexander Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey MP | 22.1% | 13.3% | 40.7% | 18.7% | 8,765 | 64.9% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from LD | Drew Hendry Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey MP | 7.5% | 5.9% | 31.3% | 50.1% | 10,809 | 74.2%+9.3 |
| 2017predecessor | SNP hold | Drew Hendry Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey MP | 16.2% | 30.5% | 12.3% | 39.9% | 4,924 | 68.7%-5.5 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Drew Hendry Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey MP, pre-review boundary | 4.6% | 40.9% | 5.9% | 46.1% | 2,906 | 73.8% |
| 2024 | SNP hold | Graham Leadbitter | 17.7% | 30.0% | 8.1% | 32.1% | 1,001 | 60.3%-13.5 |
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 44.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.0 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 45.4vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.0 / 41.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 11.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 44.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.0 / 41.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.0 / 43.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 11.1vs 20.2
- ↓Leave45.0 / 44.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent13.0 / 12.3vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.6 / 40.5vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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