Constituency profile

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Scotland · County constituency

David Mundell MP
Sitting MP

David Mundell

Conservative

MP since May 2005

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
44.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -7.3pp below mean
Current outlook
Conservative +6.2pp
vs SNP 23.6%
ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale constituency

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is David Mundell (Conservative), MP since May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.9% to 24.3% for the SNP, a majority of 4,242 votes on a 61.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 29.8% and the SNP on 23.6%, a margin of 6.2 points.

Who lives in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale? Constituency demographics

From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
44.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
40.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
19.6%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
66.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
31.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
50.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
30.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
21.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 4,242 votes (9.6pp) · turnout 61.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Dumfriesshire (57%), Clydesdale (22%), Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale (20%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyApprox. share of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale's areaWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Dumfriesshire57%Conservative 34.8%SNP 31.4%Craig Hoy
Clydesdale22%SNP 36.3%Labour 24.1%Màiri McAllan
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale20%SNP 40.9%Conservative 20.1%Calum Kerr

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale within Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders and 1 other council

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale crosses council boundaries: Dumfries and Galloway (60%), Scottish Borders (21%), South Lanarkshire (19%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Dumfries and Galloway
69 data zones
60%
Scottish Borders
24 data zones
21%
South Lanarkshire
22 data zones
19%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›

Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council first preferences Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Annandale East and EskdaleConservative 40.8%vs Labour 30.5%2022 Conservative 42.7%Labour 21.4%, Independent 15.4%, SNP 14.5%, Lib Dem 3.3%, Green 2.6%-34.1%
Annandale NorthConservative 41.1%vs SNP 24.9%2022 Conservative 50.3%SNP 30.1%, Labour 13.9%, Green 4.6%, Others 1.2%-29.2%
Annandale SouthConservative 35.8%vs Labour 27.0%2022 Conservative 38.3%SNP 21.6%, Labour 19.1%, Lib Dem 17.7%, Green 3.2%-45.4%
Clydesdale EastConservative 36.9%vs SNP 28.0%2022 Conservative 40.8%SNP 33.5%, Labour 16.4%, Green 5.3%, Lib Dem 3.1%, Others 0.9%-22.8%
Clydesdale SouthLabour 43.8%vs SNP 29.7%2022 SNP 33.5%Labour 25.9%, Conservative 18.8%, Independent 17.7%, Green 3.1%, Others 1.0%-32.6%
LocharConservative 30.2%vs Labour 29.4%2022 Conservative 39.8%SNP 33.5%, Labour 21.9%, Green 4.8%-47.1%
Mid and Upper NithsdaleConservative 33.3%vs SNP 28.6%2022 Conservative 30.7%SNP 29.2%, Independent 27.4%, Labour 12.7%-48.2%
Tweeddale EastSNP 32.1%vs Conservative 30.9%2022 SNP 30.3%Conservative 22.5%, Independent 18.3%, Lib Dem 9.9%, Green 9.6%, Labour 9.2%, Others 0.2%--
Tweeddale WestConservative 32.6%vs SNP 26.4%2022 Conservative 28.1%SNP 26.2%, Lib Dem 22.8%, Green 16.4%, Labour 6.5%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD SNP Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdDavid Mundell28.9%38.0%19.8%10.8%1.4% UKIP1.1%-4,19468.9%
2015Con holdDavid Mundell14.8%39.8%2.7%38.3%2.8% UKIP1.6%-79876.1%+7.2
2017Con holdDavid Mundell16.5%49.4%4.0%30.1%---9,44172.4%-3.7
2019notionalConservative winnerDavid Mundell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary8.3%46.5%7.3%37.9%---4,33872.0%-0.4
2024Con holdDavid Mundell22.9%33.9%6.3%24.3%8.6% Ref3.4%0.5%4,24261.5%-10.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.

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