Constituency profile

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Scotland · County constituency · Scottish Borders borough

David Mundell MP
Sitting MP

David Mundell

Conservative

First elected May 2005

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency, Scottish Borders council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
44.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -7.3pp below mean
Current outlook
Conservative +9.0pp
vs SNP 25.6%
ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale constituency

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is David Mundell (Conservative), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.9% to 24.3% for the SNP, a majority of 4,242 votes on a 61.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.6% and the SNP on 25.6%, a margin of 9.0 points.

Who lives in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
44.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
40.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
19.6%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
66.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
31.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
50.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
30.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
21.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 4,242 votes (9.6pp) · turnout 61.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Dumfriesshire (57%), Clydesdale (22%), Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale (20%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Dumfriesshire57%Conservative 34.8%SNP 31.4%Craig Hoy
Clydesdale22%SNP 36.3%Labour 24.1%Màiri McAllan
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale20%SNP 40.9%Conservative 20.1%Calum Kerr

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale within Scottish Borders

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale sits entirely within Scottish Borders Council. Scottish Borders was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Scottish Borders
1 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Annandale East and EskdaleConservative 40.8%vs Labour 30.5%2022 Conservative 42.7%vs Labour 21.4%-34.1%
Annandale NorthConservative 41.1%vs SNP 24.9%2022 Conservative 50.3%vs SNP 30.1%-29.2%
Annandale SouthConservative 35.8%vs Labour 27.0%2022 Conservative 38.3%vs SNP 21.6%-45.4%
Clydesdale EastConservative 36.9%vs SNP 28.0%2022 Conservative 40.8%vs SNP 33.5%-22.8%
Clydesdale SouthLabour 43.8%vs SNP 29.7%2022 SNP 33.5%vs Labour 25.9%-32.6%
LocharConservative 30.2%vs Labour 29.4%2022 Conservative 39.8%vs SNP 33.5%-47.1%
Mid and Upper NithsdaleConservative 33.3%vs SNP 28.6%2022 Conservative 30.7%vs SNP 29.2%-48.2%
Tweeddale EastSNP 32.1%vs Conservative 30.9%2017 Conservative 37.6%vs SNP 32.2%--
Tweeddale WestConservative 32.6%vs SNP 26.4%2017 Conservative 43.8%vs SNP 25.2%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdDavid Mundell28.9%38.0%19.8%1.4% UKIP1.1%-4,19468.9%
2015Con holdDavid Mundell14.8%39.8%2.7%2.8% UKIP1.6%-79876.1%+7.2
2017Con holdDavid Mundell16.5%49.4%4.0%---9,44172.4%-3.7
2019notionalConservative winnerDavid Mundell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary8.3%46.5%7.3%--37.9%4,33872.0%-0.4
2024Con holdDavid Mundell22.9%33.9%6.3%8.6% Ref3.4%0.5%4,24261.5%-10.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.