Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Scotland · County constituency · Scottish Borders borough
About the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale constituency
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is David Mundell (Conservative), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.9% to 24.3% for the SNP, a majority of 4,242 votes on a 61.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.6% and the SNP on 25.6%, a margin of 9.0 points.
Who lives in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Dumfriesshire (57%), Clydesdale (22%), Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale (20%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumfriesshire | 57% | Conservative 34.8% | SNP 31.4% | Craig Hoy |
| Clydesdale | 22% | SNP 36.3% | Labour 24.1% | MÃ iri McAllan |
| Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale | 20% | SNP 40.9% | Conservative 20.1% | Calum Kerr |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale within Scottish Borders
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale sits entirely within Scottish Borders Council. Scottish Borders was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Scottish Borders | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annandale East and Eskdale | Conservative 40.8%vs Labour 30.5% | 2022 Conservative 42.7%vs Labour 21.4% | - | 34.1% |
| Annandale North | Conservative 41.1%vs SNP 24.9% | 2022 Conservative 50.3%vs SNP 30.1% | - | 29.2% |
| Annandale South | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 27.0% | 2022 Conservative 38.3%vs SNP 21.6% | - | 45.4% |
| Clydesdale East | Conservative 36.9%vs SNP 28.0% | 2022 Conservative 40.8%vs SNP 33.5% | - | 22.8% |
| Clydesdale South | Labour 43.8%vs SNP 29.7% | 2022 SNP 33.5%vs Labour 25.9% | - | 32.6% |
| Lochar | Conservative 30.2%vs Labour 29.4% | 2022 Conservative 39.8%vs SNP 33.5% | - | 47.1% |
| Mid and Upper Nithsdale | Conservative 33.3%vs SNP 28.6% | 2022 Conservative 30.7%vs SNP 29.2% | - | 48.2% |
| Tweeddale East | SNP 32.1%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2017 Conservative 37.6%vs SNP 32.2% | - | - |
| Tweeddale West | Conservative 32.6%vs SNP 26.4% | 2017 Conservative 43.8%vs SNP 25.2% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | David Mundell | 28.9% | 38.0% | 19.8% | 4,194 | 68.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Mundell | 14.8% | 39.8% | 2.7% | 798 | 76.1%+7.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | David Mundell | 16.5% | 49.4% | 4.0% | 9,441 | 72.4%-3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David Mundell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 8.3% | 46.5% | 7.3% | 4,338 | 72.0%-0.4 |
| 2024 | Con hold | David Mundell | 22.9% | 33.9% | 6.3% | 4,242 | 61.5%-10.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave44.6 / 45.1vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.5vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.3 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↓Leave44.6 / 41.4vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+30.3 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Leave44.6 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.5 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave44.6 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.3 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↓Leave44.6 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.5 / 44.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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