Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Scotland · County constituency · Scottish Borders borough
About the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale constituency
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is a county constituency in Scotland, covering most or all of Scottish Borders. The sitting MP is David Mundell (Conservative), first elected in May 2005.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale with 33.9% of the vote, ahead of the SNP on 24.3%, a majority of 4,242 votes. Turnout was 61.5%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Conservatives on 34.3% and the SNP on 28.1% in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, a margin of 6.2 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is a Remain-leaning area (an estimated 44.6% voted Leave in 2016). About 40.5% of residents hold a degree, 66.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 51 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Dumfriesshire (57%), Clydesdale (22%), Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale (20%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumfriesshire | 57% | Conservative 34.8% | SNP 31.4% | Craig Hoy |
| Clydesdale | 22% | SNP 36.3% | Labour 24.1% | MÃ iri McAllan |
| Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale | 20% | SNP 40.9% | Conservative 20.1% | Calum Kerr |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale within Scottish Borders
The Westminster constituency of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale sits entirely within Scottish Borders Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Scottish Borders was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Scottish Borders | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | David Mundell | 28.9% | 38.0% | 19.8% | 4,194 | 68.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Mundell | 14.8% | 39.8% | 2.7% | 798 | 76.1%+7.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | David Mundell | 16.5% | 49.4% | 4.0% | 9,441 | 72.4%-3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David Mundell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 8.3% | 46.5% | 7.3% | 4,338 | 72.0%-0.4 |
| 2024 | Con hold | David Mundell | 22.9% | 33.9% | 6.3% | 4,242 | 61.5%-10.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave44.6 / 45.1vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.5vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.3 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↓Leave44.6 / 41.4vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+30.3 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Leave44.6 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.5 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave44.6 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.3 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↓Leave44.6 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent12.3 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.5 / 44.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.