Constituency profile

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Scotland · County constituency

Lara Bird MP
Sitting MP

Lara Bird

Scottish National Party

First elected June 2026

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
SSCSS
SNP 4/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
43.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -8.6pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +13.0pp
vs Labour 19.0%
ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Lara Bird (Scottish National Party), first elected in June 2026. At the 2024 general election, the SNP won with 35.3% to 33.4% for Labour, a majority of 859 votes on a 57.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 32.0% and Labour on 19.0%, a margin of 13.0 points.

Who lives in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
43.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
44.1%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
16.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
68.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
30.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
46.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
28.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
24.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Arbroath and Broughty Ferry vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

SNP hold · majority 859 votes (1.9pp) · turnout 57.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Arbroath and Broughty Ferry voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry sits almost entirely within the Holyrood constituency of Angus South. Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Arbroath and Broughty FerryWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Angus South94%SNP 42.3%Conservative 21.3%Lloyd Melville
Dundee City East4%SNP 48.8%Labour 18.0%Stephen Gethins

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry within Council layer

No council overlap data available for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.

Council overlap

No council overlap data.

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
9 Oct 2024Strathmartine
Dundee City
SNP HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Arbroath East and LunanLabour 38.7%vs SNP 38.7%2022 SNP 41.5%vs Independent 31.0%-36.2%
Arbroath West and LethamSNP 40.3%vs Labour 25.2%No council data--
Carnoustie and DistrictLabour 37.8%vs SNP 37.7%2022 Independent 36.9%vs SNP 35.9%-48.2%
East EndLabour 43.4%vs SNP 41.0%2022 SNP 52.8%vs Labour 26.0%-34.3%
North EastLabour 45.1%vs SNP 39.6%2022 SNP 56.5%vs Labour 26.6%-32.1%
StrathmartineSNP 41.8%vs Labour 40.1%2022 SNP 45.4%vs Labour 22.8%-25.0%
The FerrySNP 31.7%vs Labour 29.5%2022 Lib Dem 34.7%vs SNP 27.6%-34.0%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Arbroath and Broughty Ferry at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorSNP holdMike Weir Angus MP17.2%30.9%10.8%1.5% UKIP--3,28260.4%
2015predecessorSNP holdMike Weir Angus MP8.8%29.0%2.7%3.0% UKIP2.2%-11,23067.6%+7.2
2017predecessorCon gain from SNPKirstene Hair Angus MP13.0%45.2%3.3%---2,64563.0%-4.6
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerDave Doogan Angus MP, pre-review boundary10.2%30.3%8.0%--51.5%10,77767.9%
2024SNP holdStephen Gethins33.4%15.5%5.1%8.6% Ref-2.1%85957.9%-10.0

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Angus (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.