Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Scotland · County constituency
About the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Lara Bird (Scottish National Party), first elected in June 2026.
At the 2024 general election, the SNP won Arbroath and Broughty Ferry with 35.3% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 33.4%, a majority of 859 votes. Turnout was 57.9%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the SNP on 35.0% and Reform UK on 19.9% in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, a margin of 15.1 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is a Remain-leaning area (an estimated 43.3% voted Leave in 2016). About 44.1% of residents hold a degree, 68.0% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 46 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the SNP 4 times, the Conservatives 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Arbroath and Broughty Ferry vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Arbroath and Broughty Ferry voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry sits almost entirely within the Holyrood constituency of Angus South. Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus South | 94% | SNP 42.3% | Conservative 21.3% | Lloyd Melville |
| Dundee City East | 4% | SNP 48.8% | Labour 18.0% | Stephen Gethins |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry within Council layer
No council overlap data available for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
Council overlap
No council overlap data.
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2024 | Strathmartine | SNP HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Arbroath and Broughty Ferry at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | SNP hold | Mike Weir Angus MP | 17.2% | 30.9% | 10.8% | 3,282 | 60.4% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP hold | Mike Weir Angus MP | 8.8% | 29.0% | 2.7% | 11,230 | 67.6%+7.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Con gain from SNP | Kirstene Hair Angus MP | 13.0% | 45.2% | 3.3% | 2,645 | 63.0%-4.6 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Dave Doogan Angus MP, pre-review boundary | 10.2% | 30.3% | 8.0% | 10,777 | 67.9% |
| 2024 | SNP hold | Stephen Gethins | 33.4% | 15.5% | 5.1% | 859 | 57.9%-10.0 |
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Angus (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave43.3 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate44.1 / 42.3vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate44.1 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.3 / 43.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 11.1vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate44.1 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.3 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 13.0vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate44.1 / 44.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.3 / 41.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate44.1 / 46.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.3 / 41.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 11.6vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.