Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
Scotland · County constituency
About the Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber constituency
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Brendan O'Hara (Scottish National Party), MP since May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the SNP won with 34.7% to 20.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,232 votes on a 62.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 37.3% and Reform UK on 16.7%, a margin of 20.6 points.
Who lives in Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Argyll and Bute (70%), Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch (23%), Dumbarton (5%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argyll and Bute | 70% | SNP 40.0% | Liberal Democrats 30.7% | Jenni Minto |
| Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch | 23% | Liberal Democrats 38.9% | SNP 36.5% | Andrew Baxter |
| Dumbarton | 5% | Labour 39.8% | SNP 34.2% | Jackie Baillie |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber within Argyll and Bute and Highland
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber crosses council boundaries: Argyll and Bute (95%), Highland (5%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Argyll and Bute | 95% |
| Highland | 5% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | Mid Argyll | SNP GAIN from Other | SNP 46% LD 17% Con 13% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | Fort William & Ardnamurchan | LD GAIN from SNP | LD 40% SNP 29% Ref 10% |
| 21 Nov 2024 | Fort William and Ardnamurchan | LD HOLD | - |
| 19 Jul 2024 | Kintyre and the Islands | SNP GAIN from LD | - |
| 6 Nov 2023 | South Kintyre | Ind HOLD | Other 58% SNP 17% Con 13% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowal | SNP 38.1%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2022 SNP 41.9%Conservative 26.1%, Lib Dem 16.8%, Labour 7.7%, Independent 5.2%, Others 2.4% | - | 54.7% |
| Dunoon | SNP 40.2%vs Lib Dem 23.2% | 2022 SNP 40.9%Conservative 17.9%, Lib Dem 16.9%, Independent 16.2%, Labour 6.5%, Others 1.6% | - | 49.0% |
| Fort William and Ardnamurchan | Lib Dem 40.4%vs SNP 25.7% | 2022 Lib Dem 37.5%SNP 33.5%, Conservative 10.1%, Green 9.6%, Independent 9.3% | - | 44.4% |
| Helensburgh Central | Conservative 28.2%vs Labour 25.7% | 2022 Conservative 37.2%SNP 21.4%, Labour 21.3%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.8%, Independent 2.2% | - | 50.9% |
| Helensburgh and Lomond South | Conservative 28.2%vs SNP 24.9% | 2022 Conservative 47.7%SNP 26.0%, Lib Dem 17.8%, Green 8.6% | - | 49.7% |
| Isle of Bute | SNP 44.0%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2022 Independent 46.1%SNP 25.4%, Conservative 17.8%, Labour 4.3%, Green 3.0%, Others 2.4%, Lib Dem 1.1% | - | 47.9% |
| Kintyre and the Islands | SNP 39.2%vs Lib Dem 28.2% | 2022 Independent 39.9%SNP 29.9%, Lib Dem 16.4%, Conservative 9.6%, Labour 4.2% | - | 53.7% |
| Lomond North | SNP 34.7%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2022 Independent 34.1%Conservative 26.4%, SNP 24.3%, Labour 12.4%, Lib Dem 2.9% | - | 51.1% |
| Mid Argyll | SNP 47.9%vs Conservative 19.8% | 2022 Independent 46.6%SNP 31.1%, Conservative 11.6%, Labour 4.9%, Lib Dem 3.4%, Others 2.4% | - | 51.4% |
| Oban North and Lorn | SNP 34.3%vs Labour 28.9% | 2022 Independent 31.6%SNP 30.6%, Conservative 18.7%, Green 9.7%, Lib Dem 6.5%, Others 2.9% | - | 49.0% |
| Oban South and the Isles | SNP 48.7%vs Conservative 18.2% | 2022 SNP 38.2%Independent 29.8%, Conservative 12.4%, Green 9.7%, Lib Dem 5.2%, Labour 4.7% | - | 27.6% |
| South Kintyre | SNP 34.5%vs Labour 25.4% | 2022 Independent 36.0%SNP 32.8%, Conservative 22.5%, Lib Dem 8.7% | - | 46.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Alan Reid Argyll and Bute MP | 22.7% | 24.0% | 31.6% | 18.9% | 3,431 | 67.3% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from LD | Brendan O'Hara Argyll and Bute MP | 10.4% | 14.9% | 27.9% | 44.3% | 8,473 | 75.3%+8.0 |
| 2017predecessor | SNP hold | Brendan O'Hara Argyll and Bute MP | 12.6% | 33.2% | 18.2% | 36.0% | 1,328 | 71.5%-3.8 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Brendan O'Hara Argyll and Bute MP, pre-review boundary | 7.1% | 34.5% | 14.1% | 44.2% | 4,897 | 70.7% |
| 2024 | SNP hold | Brendan O'Hara | 19.1% | 20.8% | 16.4% | 34.7% | 6,232 | 62.5%-8.2 |
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Argyll and Bute (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave41.5 / 41.4vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 44.5vs 33.7
- ↓Under 3520.7 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 44.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.5 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.6 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 49.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.5 / 39.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.6 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.5 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.6 / 13.0vs 20.2
- ↓Leave41.5 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.6 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate46.5 / 42.3vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.