Central Ayrshire
Scotland · County constituency · South Ayrshire borough
About the Central Ayrshire constituency
Central Ayrshire is a county constituency in Scotland, covering most or all of South Ayrshire. The sitting MP is Alan Gemmell (Labour), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Central Ayrshire with 43.7% of the vote, ahead of the SNP on 27.1%, a majority of 6,869 votes. Turnout was 59.7%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the SNP on 30.7% and Labour on 25.8% in Central Ayrshire, a margin of 4.9 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Central Ayrshire is a Remain-leaning area (an estimated 41.6% voted Leave in 2016). About 42.3% of residents hold a degree, 66.8% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 48 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the SNP 3 times, Labour 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Central Ayrshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Central Ayrshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Central Ayrshire
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Central Ayrshire voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Central Ayrshire crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley (59%), Cunninghame South (28%), Ayr (10%), Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley (2%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Central Ayrshire | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley | 59% | SNP 33.2% | Reform UK 24.1% | Katie Hagmann |
| Cunninghame South | 28% | SNP 38.8% | Labour 24.6% | Patricia Gibson |
| Ayr | 10% | SNP 36.4% | Conservative 23.9% | Siobhian Brown |
| Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley | 2% | SNP 40.9% | Labour 25.6% | Alan Brown |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Central Ayrshire within South Ayrshire
The Westminster constituency of Central Ayrshire sits entirely within South Ayrshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and South Ayrshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Ayrshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2025 | Ayr North | Ind GAIN from SNP | LD 25% Lab 23% Con 20% |
| 10 May 2024 | Kilwinning | Lab GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Central Ayrshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Central Ayrshire at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Brian Donohoe | 47.7% | 20.4% | 11.9% | 12,007 | 64.2% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Philippa Whitford | 26.4% | 17.3% | 1.8% | 13,589 | 72.5%+8.3 |
| 2017 | SNP hold | Philippa Whitford | 26.1% | 34.4% | 2.3% | 1,267 | 65.3%-7.2 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Philippa Whitford 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 14.1% | 34.8% | 4.9% | 5,304 | 66.7%+1.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Alan Gemmell | 43.7% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 6,869 | 59.7%-7.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Central Ayrshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Central Ayrshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave41.6 / 42.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 9.7vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 42.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 44.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 43.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 11.1vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 44.1vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3523.8 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 35.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 10.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 42.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.