Central Ayrshire
Scotland · County constituency
About the Central Ayrshire constituency
Central Ayrshire is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Alan Gemmell (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.7% to 27.1% for the SNP, a majority of 6,869 votes on a 59.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 29.8% and Labour on 27.4%, a margin of 2.4 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Central Ayrshire? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Central Ayrshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Central Ayrshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Central Ayrshire voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Central Ayrshire crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley (59%), Cunninghame South (28%), Ayr (10%), Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley (2%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Central Ayrshire's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley | 59% | SNP 33.2% | Reform UK 24.1% | Katie Hagmann |
| Cunninghame South | 28% | SNP 38.8% | Labour 24.6% | Patricia Gibson |
| Ayr | 10% | SNP 36.4% | Conservative 23.9% | Siobhian Brown |
| Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley | 2% | SNP 40.9% | Labour 25.6% | Alan Brown |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Central Ayrshire within South Ayrshire and North Ayrshire
Central Ayrshire crosses council boundaries: South Ayrshire (51%), North Ayrshire (49%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Ayrshire | 51% |
| North Ayrshire | 49% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2025 | Ayr North | Ind GAIN from SNP | Other 31% SNP 23% Lab 20% |
| 10 May 2024 | Kilwinning | Lab GAIN from Con | Lab 54% SNP 23% Con 16% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr North | Labour 41.9%vs SNP 32.9% | 2022 SNP 45.9%Labour 24.1%, Conservative 20.5%, Independent 6.3%, Lib Dem 1.6%, Others 1.6% | - | 37.9% |
| Irvine East | Labour 48.4%vs SNP 30.4% | 2022 SNP 44.5%Labour 27.2%, Conservative 19.8%, Green 4.2%, Lib Dem 2.6%, Others 1.6% | - | - |
| Irvine West | Labour 50.9%vs SNP 28.3% | 2022 SNP 40.7%Labour 29.8%, Conservative 20.0%, Others 4.2%, Independent 3.9%, Lib Dem 1.5% | - | - |
| Kilwinning | Labour 54.9%vs SNP 26.2% | 2022 Labour 46.0%SNP 34.9%, Conservative 15.6%, Lib Dem 3.4% | - | - |
| Kyle | Labour 44.3%vs SNP 26.1% | 2022 Conservative 36.7%SNP 33.9%, Labour 23.0%, Lib Dem 4.9%, Others 1.5% | - | 45.4% |
| Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton | Labour 31.2%vs SNP 29.9% | 2022 Conservative 35.5%SNP 32.0%, Independent 17.7%, Labour 12.4%, Lib Dem 2.5% | - | 46.0% |
| Prestwick | Labour 39.0%vs SNP 30.4% | 2022 SNP 34.8%Conservative 25.5%, Independent 23.2%, Labour 15.4%, Others 1.2% | - | 53.1% |
| Saltcoats and Stevenston | Labour 50.7%vs SNP 30.2% | 2022 Labour 40.2%SNP 39.6%, Conservative 11.4%, Independent 7.1%, Others 1.7% | - | - |
| Troon | Labour 40.6%vs SNP 28.1% | 2022 Conservative 37.3%SNP 35.9%, Labour 19.2%, Lib Dem 4.7%, Independent 2.8% | - | 53.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Central Ayrshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Central Ayrshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Brian Donohoe | 47.7% | 20.4% | 11.9% | 19.0% | 12,007 | 64.2% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Philippa Whitford | 26.4% | 17.3% | 1.8% | 53.2% | 13,589 | 72.5%+8.3 |
| 2017 | SNP hold | Philippa Whitford | 26.1% | 34.4% | 2.3% | 37.2% | 1,267 | 65.3%-7.2 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Philippa Whitford 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 14.1% | 34.8% | 4.9% | 46.2% | 5,304 | 66.7%+1.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Alan Gemmell | 43.7% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 27.1% | 6,869 | 59.7%-7.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Central Ayrshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Central Ayrshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave41.6 / 42.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 9.7vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 42.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 44.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 43.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 11.1vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 44.1vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3523.8 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 35.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent9.9 / 10.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate42.3 / 42.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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