Constituency profile

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West

Scotland · County constituency · Inverclyde borough

Martin McCluskey MP
Sitting MP

Martin McCluskey

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency, Inverclyde council
Last 5 GE winners
LSSSL
SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5
EU referendum 2016
35.5% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -16.4pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +2.0pp
vs SNP 32.6%
ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West constituency

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Martin McCluskey (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.9% to 31.1% for the SNP, a majority of 6,371 votes on a 57.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.6% and the SNP on 32.6%, a margin of 2.0 points.

Who lives in Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
35.5%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
42.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
19.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
33.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
47.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
26.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
24.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 6,371 votes (15.8pp) · turnout 57.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Inverclyde (81%), Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley (17%), Cunninghame North (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Inverclyde81%SNP 44.3%Labour 27.7%Stuart McMillan
Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley17%SNP 40.4%Labour 30.8%Tom Arthur
Cunninghame North1%SNP 39.2%Labour 20.0%Kenneth Gibson

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West within Inverclyde

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West sits entirely within Inverclyde Council. Inverclyde was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Inverclyde
1 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
9 Nov 2024Inverclyde West
Inverclyde
Lab HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and LangbankLabour 41.7%vs SNP 32.0%2022 SNP 36.3%vs Conservative 34.4%-39.9%
Houston, Crosslee and LinwoodLabour 48.2%vs SNP 29.8%2022 SNP 39.1%vs Labour 37.1%-44.0%
Inverclyde EastLabour 48.9%vs SNP 31.8%2017 Conservative 40.0%vs SNP 27.0%-52.0%
Inverclyde East CentralLabour 47.8%vs SNP 34.9%2022 SNP 41.9%vs Labour 31.5%-32.2%
Inverclyde NorthLabour 51.2%vs SNP 30.2%2022 Labour 35.9%vs SNP 34.3%-25.4%
Inverclyde SouthLabour 46.6%vs SNP 36.5%2022 SNP 42.2%vs Labour 28.2%-40.1%
Inverclyde South WestLabour 45.8%vs SNP 36.6%2022 SNP 44.6%vs Labour 28.9%-42.6%
Inverclyde WestLabour 50.7%vs SNP 31.2%2022 Independent 31.6%vs SNP 26.6%-54.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdDavid Cairns Inverclyde MP56.0%12.0%13.3%1.2% UKIP--14,41663.4%
2015predecessorSNP gain from LabRonnie Cowan Inverclyde MP30.3%10.0%2.5%1.6% UKIP-0.5%11,06375.2%+11.8
2017predecessorSNP holdRonnie Cowan Inverclyde MP37.5%21.5%2.5%---38466.4%-8.8
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerRonnie Cowan Inverclyde MP, pre-review boundary28.2%17.9%6.4%--47.5%8,93365.8%
2024Lab gain from SNPMartin McCluskey46.9%7.1%3.1%6.1% Ref2.9%2.7%6,37157.5%-8.3

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Inverclyde (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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