Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Scotland · County constituency
About the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Elaine Stewart (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.5% to 26.3% for the SNP, a majority of 4,154 votes on a 58.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 27.4% and Labour on 24.6%, a margin of 2.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock sits almost entirely within the Holyrood constituency of Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley | 98% | SNP 33.2% | Reform UK 24.1% | Katie Hagmann |
| Ayr | 1% | SNP 36.4% | Conservative 23.9% | Siobhian Brown |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock within South Ayrshire and East Ayrshire
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock crosses council boundaries: South Ayrshire (72%), East Ayrshire (28%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Ayrshire | 72% |
| East Ayrshire | 28% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2025 | Ayr North | Ind GAIN from SNP | Other 31% SNP 23% Lab 20% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | Doon Valley | Lab HOLD | Lab 32% Con 26% SNP 24% |
| 29 Sep 2023 | Girvan and South Carrick | Con GAIN from SNP | - |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr East | Labour 34.6%vs SNP 32.1% | 2022 SNP 39.2%Conservative 30.0%, Labour 16.5%, Independent 12.1%, Lib Dem 2.3% | - | 26.0% |
| Ayr North | Labour 41.9%vs SNP 32.9% | 2022 SNP 45.9%Labour 24.1%, Conservative 20.5%, Independent 6.3%, Lib Dem 1.6%, Others 1.6% | - | 37.9% |
| Ayr West | Conservative 34.3%vs Labour 30.1% | 2022 Conservative 39.6%Independent 22.8%, SNP 21.9%, Labour 10.9%, Lib Dem 3.5%, Others 1.3% | - | 31.2% |
| Cumnock and New Cumnock | Labour 53.8%vs SNP 23.9% | 2022 Labour 43.4%SNP 35.7%, Conservative 18.5%, Lib Dem 2.4% | - | 22.0% |
| Doon Valley | Labour 45.8%vs SNP 22.6% | 2022 Independent 39.5%Labour 23.1%, SNP 20.8%, Conservative 16.7% | - | 29.7% |
| Girvan and South Carrick | Conservative 28.7%vs SNP 28.6% | 2022 Independent 37.1%Conservative 28.0%, SNP 24.9%, Labour 8.8%, Others 1.2% | - | 45.8% |
| Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton | Labour 31.2%vs SNP 29.9% | 2022 Conservative 35.5%SNP 32.0%, Independent 17.7%, Labour 12.4%, Lib Dem 2.5% | - | 46.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Sandra Osborne | 47.1% | 25.5% | 9.3% | 18.0% | 9,911 | 62.6% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from Lab | Corri Wilson | 27.3% | 19.8% | 1.6% | 48.8% | 11,265 | 71.5%+8.9 |
| 2017 | Con gain from SNP | Bill Grant | 23.9% | 40.1% | 1.9% | 34.1% | 2,774 | 64.9%-6.6 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Allan Dorans 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 13.3% | 38.5% | 4.6% | 43.5% | 2,329 | 64.7%-0.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from SNP | Elaine Stewart | 36.5% | 22.6% | 2.6% | 26.3% | 4,154 | 58.2%-6.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 9.7vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.1 / 42.4vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+29.6 / 29.3vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.1 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3523.9 / 23.8vs 30.2
- ↓Leave44.1 / 45.1vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+29.6 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.9 / 22.5vs 30.2
- ↓Leave44.1 / 44.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.6 / 12.3vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+29.6 / 30.3vs 22.7
- ↓Leave44.1 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+29.6 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.9 / 22.1vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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