Constituency profile

Dumfries and Galloway

Scotland · County constituency · Dumfries and Galloway borough

John Cooper MP
Sitting MP

John Cooper

Conservative

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency, Dumfries and Galloway council
Last 5 GE winners
LSCCC
Conservative 3/5, Labour 1/5, SNP 1/5
EU referendum 2016
45.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -6.8pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +1.4pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
ScottishBrexit-marginal

About the Dumfries and Galloway constituency

Dumfries and Galloway is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is John Cooper (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 29.6% to 27.5% for the SNP, a majority of 930 votes on a 58.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 29.1% and the Conservatives on 27.6%, a margin of 1.4 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Dumfries and Galloway? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
45.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
38.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
65.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
32.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
50.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
31.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
22.5%
UK average ~28%

How did Dumfries and Galloway vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 930 votes (2.1pp) · turnout 58.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Dumfries and Galloway

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Dumfries and Galloway voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Dumfries and Galloway sits almost entirely within the Holyrood constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries. Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Dumfries and GallowayWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Galloway and West Dumfries92%Conservative 38.3%SNP 33.0%Finlay Carson
Dumfriesshire7%Conservative 34.8%SNP 31.4%Craig Hoy

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Dumfries and Galloway within Dumfries and Galloway

Dumfries and Galloway sits entirely within Dumfries and Galloway Council. Dumfries and Galloway was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Dumfries and Galloway
1 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AbbeyLabour 33.6%vs Conservative 28.3%2022 Conservative 36.7%vs SNP 31.1%-35.7%
DeeConservative 37.5%vs SNP 30.0%No council data--
LocharConservative 30.2%vs Labour 29.4%2022 Conservative 39.8%vs SNP 33.5%-47.1%
Mid GallowayConservative 37.0%vs SNP 27.9%No council data--
Mid and Upper NithsdaleConservative 33.3%vs SNP 28.6%2022 Conservative 30.7%vs SNP 29.2%-48.2%
NithLabour 33.5%vs SNP 29.4%2022 SNP 33.4%vs Conservative 28.3%-47.4%
North West DumfriesLabour 34.8%vs SNP 31.0%2022 SNP 39.5%vs Conservative 28.4%-38.7%
Wigtown WestConservative 37.0%vs SNP 27.9%No council data--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Dumfries and Galloway at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Dumfries and Galloway at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdRussell Brown45.9%31.6%8.8%1.3% UKIP--7,44970.0%
2015SNP gain from LabRichard Arkless24.7%29.9%1.7%2.3% UKIP--6,51475.2%+5.2
2017Con gain from SNPAlister Jack20.9%43.3%2.4%--1.0%5,64369.5%-5.7
2019notionalConservative winnerAlister Jack 2019 MP, pre-review boundary9.4%43.8%6.0%--40.8%1,55668.3%-1.2
2024Con holdJohn Cooper25.7%29.6%4.6%9.4% Ref2.7%0.5%93058.3%-10.0

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Dumfries and Galloway

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dumfries and Galloway. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.