Constituency profile

Stirling and Strathallan

Scotland · County constituency · Stirling borough

Chris Kane MP
Sitting MP

Chris Kane

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency, Stirling council
Last 5 GE winners
LSCSL
Labour 2/5, SNP 2/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
35.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -16.0pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +14.8pp
Vulnerability score 10/10 (Labour projected to lose)
ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Stirling and Strathallan constituency

Stirling and Strathallan is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Chris Kane (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 33.9% to 31.1% for the SNP, a majority of 1,394 votes on a 65.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 34.3% and Labour on 19.5%, a margin of 14.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Stirling and Strathallan? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
35.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
51.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
12.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
67.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
31.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
44.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
24.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
29.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Stirling and Strathallan vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 1,394 votes (2.8pp) · turnout 65.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Stirling and Strathallan

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Stirling and Strathallan voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Stirling and Strathallan crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Stirling (85%), Perthshire South and Kinross-shire (10%), Clackmannanshire and Dunblane (4%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Stirling and StrathallanWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Stirling85%SNP 42.4%Conservative 19.2%Alyn Smith
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire10%SNP 40.4%Conservative 26.5%Jim Fairlie
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane4%SNP 37.8%Labour 24.6%Keith Brown

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Stirling and Strathallan within Stirling

Stirling and Strathallan sits entirely within Stirling Council. Stirling was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Stirling
1 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
30 Oct 2025Stirling East
Stirling
SNP GAIN from ConCon 36% LD 24% Ref 23%
24 Jan 2025Bannockburn
Stirling
SNP GAIN from Lab
6 Dec 2024Stirling East
Stirling
SNP GAIN from Lab
27 Sep 2024Strathallan
Perth and Kinross
LD GAIN from Con
16 Aug 2024Dunblane and Bridge of Allan
Stirling
Lab GAIN from Ind

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BannockburnLabour 44.2%vs SNP 31.5%2022 SNP 28.7%vs Independent 26.0%-38.4%
Dunblane and Bridge of AllanLabour 30.0%vs SNP 29.2%2022 Conservative 30.1%vs SNP 25.8%-36.1%
Forth and EndrickSNP 33.6%vs Labour 31.0%2022 Conservative 36.1%vs SNP 35.2%-55.5%
Stirling EastLabour 40.1%vs SNP 34.4%2022 SNP 38.7%vs Conservative 23.3%-44.6%
Stirling WestLabour 36.2%vs SNP 31.3%2022 Conservative 37.1%vs SNP 35.7%-54.0%
StrathallanLabour 30.6%vs SNP 29.8%2022 Conservative 46.6%vs SNP 35.0%-50.1%
Trossachs and TeithSNP 33.9%vs Conservative 27.1%2022 Conservative 45.0%vs SNP 33.4%-56.7%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Stirling and Strathallan at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Stirling and Strathallan at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdAnne McGuire Stirling MP41.8%24.0%14.5%0.8% UKIP1.6%-8,30470.9%
2015predecessorSNP gain from LabSteven Paterson Stirling MP25.5%23.1%2.7%-3.1%-10,48077.5%+6.6
2017predecessorCon gain from SNPStephen Kerr Stirling MP22.1%37.1%3.4%--0.7%14874.3%-3.2
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerAlyn Smith Stirling MP, pre-review boundary7.7%35.0%5.8%--51.5%8,55675.1%
2024Lab gain from SNPChris Kane33.9%19.0%5.1%6.3% Ref4.7%-1,39465.3%-9.8

Stirling and Strathallan was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Stirling (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Stirling and Strathallan

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stirling and Strathallan. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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