Bristol North West
South West · Borough constituency · Bristol, City of borough
About the Bristol North West constituency
Bristol North West is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Darren Jones (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.6% to 17.3% for the Greens, a majority of 15,669 votes on a 64.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 41.5% and the Greens on 24.4%, a margin of 17.1 points.
Who lives in Bristol North West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bristol North West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bristol North West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bristol North West within Bristol, City of
Bristol North West sits entirely within Bristol, City of Council. Bristol, City of was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bristol, City of | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston | Labour 51.2%vs Green 17.7% | 2024 Labour 41.5%vs Green 28.6% | - | 24.0% |
| Bishopston and Ashley Down | Labour 50.3%vs Green 27.6% | 2024 Green 59.4%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 49.1% |
| Henbury and Brentry | Labour 50.6%vs Conservative 18.3% | 2024 Conservative 51.4%vs Labour 35.3% | - | 32.1% |
| Horfield | Labour 57.0%vs Green 16.7% | 2024 Labour 50.9%vs Green 26.9% | - | 34.0% |
| Southmead | Labour 56.3%vs Green 15.6% | 2024 Labour 48.9%vs Green 28.2% | - | 24.2% |
| Stoke Bishop | Labour 43.0%vs Conservative 20.8% | 2024 Conservative 46.4%vs Green 20.4% | - | 42.2% |
| Westbury-on-Trym and Henleaze | Labour 42.7%vs Conservative 17.3% | 2024 Lib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 31.0% | - | 53.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bristol North West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bristol North West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Charlotte Leslie | 25.9% | 38.0% | 31.5% | 3,274 | 68.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Charlotte Leslie | 34.4% | 43.9% | 6.2% | 4,944 | 69.3%+0.8 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Darren Jones | 50.7% | 41.8% | 5.2% | 4,761 | 71.7%+2.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Darren Jones 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 48.9% | 36.5% | 8.1% | 7,235 | 76.1%+4.4 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Darren Jones | 49.6% | 14.0% | 8.6% | 15,669 | 64.7%-11.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bristol North West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bristol North West. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave41.6 / 43.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.0 / 40.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.0 / 44.5vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3535.0 / 34.4vs 30.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 41.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.0 / 46.1vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3535.0 / 36.5vs 30.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 46.8vs 53.2
- ↓Leave41.6 / 42.9vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.0 / 44.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.