Cardiff West
Wales · Borough constituency
About the Cardiff West constituency
Cardiff West is a borough constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Mr Alex Barros-Curtis (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.7% to 21.1% for Plaid Cymru, a majority of 7,019 votes on a 59.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Plaid Cymru on 32.6% and Labour on 20.8%, a margin of 11.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Cardiff West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Cardiff West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Cardiff West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Cardiff West voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Cardiff West sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Caerdydd Penarth. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Cardiff West | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerdydd Penarth | 97% | Plaid Cymru 41.0% | Reform UK 17.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Green, 1 Labour |
| Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg | 2% | Plaid Cymru 33.5% | Reform UK 30.1% | 2 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Cardiff West within Cardiff and Rhondda Cynon Taf
Cardiff West crosses council boundaries: Cardiff (94%), Rhondda Cynon Taf (6%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cardiff | 94% |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 6% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau | Labour 42.3%vs Reform 15.7% | 2022 Labour 72.9%vs Conservative 13.2% | - | - |
| Canton | Labour 38.8%vs Plaid Cymru 28.0% | 2022 Labour 46.8%vs Others 43.0% | - | - |
| Ely | Labour 39.6%vs Reform 18.3% | 2022 Labour 62.9%vs Others 21.2% | - | - |
| Fairwater | Labour 38.0%vs Plaid Cymru 15.6% | 2022 Others 47.4%vs Labour 39.6% | - | - |
| Llandaff | Labour 31.4%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2022 Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 31.6% | - | - |
| Pentyrch and St Fagans | Plaid Cymru 29.3%vs Labour 26.6% | 2022 Others 36.7%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | - |
| Pontyclun Central | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 22.5% | 2022 Labour 31.1%vs Conservative 29.7% | - | - |
| Pontyclun East | Labour 31.9%vs Conservative 17.2% | 2022 Conservative 23.7%vs Independent 23.7% | - | - |
| Pontyclun West | Labour 31.0%vs Plaid Cymru 17.5% | 2022 Independent 58.2%vs Labour 23.9% | - | - |
| Radyr | Labour 32.0%vs Conservative 23.3% | 2022 Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 33.1% | - | - |
| Riverside | Labour 43.2%vs Plaid Cymru 20.9% | 2022 Labour 59.7%vs Others 27.0% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Cardiff West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Cardiff West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Kevin Brennan | 41.2% | 29.6% | 17.5% | 4,751 | 65.2% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Kevin Brennan | 40.7% | 25.2% | 4.7% | 6,789 | 65.6%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Kevin Brennan | 56.7% | 29.8% | 2.6% | 12,551 | 69.8%+4.2 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kevin Brennan 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 50.2% | 29.9% | 5.3% | 10,546 | 70.2%+0.4 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Alex Barros-Curtis | 36.7% | 15.3% | 4.3% | 7,019 | 59.1%-11.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Cardiff West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cardiff West. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave43.8 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 43.0vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.8 / 46.8vs 53.2
- ↓Leave43.8 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 44.5vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate40.1 / 36.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave43.8 / 50.7vs 53.2
- ↓Leave43.8 / 50.4vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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