Croydon South
London · Borough constituency · Croydon borough
About the Croydon South constituency
Croydon South is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Chris Philp (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 40.0% to 35.3% for Labour, a majority of 2,313 votes on a 65.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 41.1% and Labour on 28.8%, a margin of 12.3 points.
Who lives in Croydon South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Croydon South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Croydon South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Croydon South within Croydon
Croydon South sits entirely within Croydon Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Croydon | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coulsdon Town | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 36.6% | May 2026 Conservative 38.8%vs Reform 17.0% | Conservative share +1.1pp | 48.8% |
| Kenley | Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 33.9% | May 2026 Conservative 47.1%vs Reform 16.0% | Conservative share +6.1pp | 47.2% |
| Old Coulsdon | Conservative 45.2%vs Labour 27.8% | May 2026 Conservative 37.1%vs Lib Dem 31.3% | Conservative share -8.1pp | 52.8% |
| Park Hill & Whitgift | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 35.8% | May 2026 Conservative 40.7%vs Labour 21.5% | Labour→Conservative +12.9pp | 47.0% |
| Purley & Woodcote | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 33.9% | May 2026 Conservative 46.5%vs Green 18.3% | Conservative share +6.0pp | 42.8% |
| Purley Oaks & Riddlesdown | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 35.6% | May 2026 Conservative 38.6%vs Green 21.3% | Conservative share -0.8pp | 47.3% |
| Sanderstead | Conservative 45.8%vs Labour 30.3% | May 2026 Conservative 55.4%vs Reform 13.1% | Conservative share +9.6pp | 54.4% |
| South Croydon | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 34.0% | May 2026 Conservative 31.2%vs Labour 23.6% | Labour→Conservative +8.3pp | 45.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Croydon South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Croydon South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Richard Ottaway | 20.0% | 50.9% | 22.8% | 15,818 | 69.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Chris Philp | 24.8% | 54.5% | 6.0% | 17,140 | 70.4%+1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Chris Philp | 35.8% | 54.4% | 5.8% | 11,406 | 73.3%+2.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Chris Philp 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 28.1% | 54.5% | 13.5% | 13,408 | 71.1%-2.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Chris Philp | 35.3% | 40.0% | 8.9% | 2,313 | 65.9%-5.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Croydon South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Croydon South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate46.4 / 48.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.8 / 41.1vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 11.4vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate46.4 / 42.1vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent9.6 / 9.1vs 16.8
- ↑Employed62.0 / 63.2vs 57.3
- ↑Graduate46.4 / 48.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave45.8 / 37.4vs 53.2
- ↓No quals12.1 / 14.8vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate46.4 / 39.6vs 33.7
- ↑Employed62.0 / 60.4vs 57.3
- ↓Leave45.8 / 49.9vs 53.2
- ↓Leave45.8 / 44.4vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.8 / 69.6vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate46.4 / 40.5vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.