Constituency profile

Halesowen

West Midlands · Borough constituency

Alex Ballinger MP
Sitting MP

Alex Ballinger

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
65.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +13.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +2.7pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Halesowen constituency

Halesowen is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Alex Ballinger (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.9% to 27.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,364 votes on a 56.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.1% and Labour on 28.4%, a margin of 2.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Halesowen? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
65.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
25.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
23.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
67.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
32.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
41.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
24.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
29.2%
UK average ~28%

How did Halesowen vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 4,364 votes (11.3pp) · turnout 56.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Halesowen

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Halesowen within Dudley and Sandwell

Halesowen crosses council boundaries: Dudley (84%), Sandwell (16%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Dudley
47 LSOAs
84%View projection ›
Sandwell
9 LSOAs
16%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Belle ValeLabour 39.0%vs Conservative 27.5%May 2026 Reform 35.6%vs Conservative 31.3%
Labour→Reform
+16.4pp
41.1%
BlackheathLabour 40.7%vs Reform 19.3%May 2026 Reform 49.3%vs Labour 25.8%
Labour→Reform
+22.4pp
34.9%
Cradley Heath and Old HillLabour 45.4%vs Reform 22.3%May 2026 Reform 44.8%vs Labour 27.8%
Labour→Reform
+20.1pp
32.5%
Cradley North & WollescoteLabour 40.5%vs Conservative 24.0%May 2026 Reform 36.2%vs Lib Dem 34.1%
Labour→Reform
+22.6pp
38.0%
Halesowen NorthLabour 41.1%vs Conservative 27.6%May 2026 Conservative 34.4%vs Labour 30.2%
Labour→Conservative
+8.9pp
40.4%
Halesowen SouthLabour 33.6%vs Conservative 32.5%May 2026 Reform 37.7%vs Conservative 28.8%
Labour→Reform
+15.3pp
47.4%
Hayley Green & Cradley SouthLabour 34.4%vs Conservative 32.5%May 2026 Reform 39.4%vs Conservative 31.4%
Labour→Reform
+18.6pp
43.5%
Quarry Bank & Dudley WoodLabour 39.6%vs Conservative 26.9%May 2026 Reform 56.9%vs Labour 14.7%
Labour→Reform
+29.6pp
33.9%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Halesowen at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Halesowen at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon gain from LabJames Morris Halesowen and Rowley Regis MP36.6%41.2%14.8%6.4% UKIP-1.0%2,02369.0%
2015predecessorCon holdJames Morris Halesowen and Rowley Regis MP36.2%43.2%2.1%16.6% UKIP1.9%-3,08266.3%-2.7
2017predecessorCon holdJames Morris Halesowen and Rowley Regis MP40.0%51.9%1.9%4.8% UKIP1.0%0.4%5,25364.5%-1.8
2019notionalConservative winnerJames Morris Halesowen and Rowley Regis MP, pre-review boundary32.6%60.2%3.5%-2.4%1.3%12,08262.5%
2024Lab gain from ConAlex Ballinger38.9%27.6%5.9%22.0% Ref5.6%-4,36456.3%-6.2

Halesowen was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Halesowen and Rowley Regis (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Halesowen

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Halesowen. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.