Stoke-on-Trent South
West Midlands · County constituency
About the Stoke-on-Trent South constituency
Stoke-on-Trent South is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Dr Allison Gardner (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.7% to 33.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 627 votes on a 58.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.3% and Labour on 29.6%, a margin of 2.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Stoke-on-Trent South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stoke-on-Trent South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stoke-on-Trent South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stoke-on-Trent South within Stoke-on-Trent and Stafford and 1 other council
Stoke-on-Trent South crosses council boundaries: Stoke-on-Trent (72%), Stafford (16%), Staffordshire Moorlands (12%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent | 72% |
| Stafford | 16% |
| Staffordshire Moorlands | 12% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2024 | Meir North | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barlaston | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 54.0%vs Labour 30.7% | - | 30.1% |
| Blurton | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 52.9%vs Labour 37.2% | - | 28.0% |
| Checkley | Conservative 33.0%vs Labour 28.6% | 2023 Independent 39.9%vs Conservative 37.2% | - | 42.6% |
| Dresden & Florence | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Others 49.5%vs Labour 40.2% | - | 27.1% |
| Forsbrook | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 56.6%vs Labour 15.7% | - | 42.5% |
| Fulford | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.1%vs Conservative 42.9% | - | 34.3% |
| Hanford, Newstead & Trentham | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 34.9% | 2023 Conservative 57.6%vs Labour 32.0% | - | 33.4% |
| Hollybush | Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2023 Labour 55.2%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 24.9% |
| Lightwood North & Normacot | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 57.0%vs Labour 43.0% | - | 60.1% |
| Longton & Meir Hay South | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 44.5% | - | 26.8% |
| Meir Hay North, Parkhall & Weston Coyney | Labour 32.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Labour 38.2% | - | 23.9% |
| Meir North | Labour 39.9%vs Reform 24.8% | 2023 Labour 52.3%vs Others 30.1% | - | 18.8% |
| Meir Park | Conservative 44.2%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Conservative 73.5%vs Labour 19.4% | - | 33.1% |
| Meir South | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 52.5%vs Labour 47.5% | - | 29.3% |
| Swynnerton & Oulton | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 31.6% | 2023 Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 25.3% | - | 39.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stoke-on-Trent South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stoke-on-Trent South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Robert Flello | 38.8% | 28.4% | 15.9% | 4,130 | 58.6% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Robert Flello | 39.2% | 32.7% | 3.3% | 2,539 | 57.4%-1.2 |
| 2017 | Con gain from Lab | Jack Brereton | 47.5% | 49.1% | 1.9% | 663 | 63.1%+5.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jack Brereton 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 29.6% | 62.5% | 6.2% | 15,393 | 67.0%+3.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Allison Gardner | 34.7% | 33.2% | 3.9% | 627 | 58.5%-8.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stoke-on-Trent South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stoke-on-Trent South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave71.1 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave71.1 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.4 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↑Leave71.1 / 65.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 25.0vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.4 / 14.2vs 20.2
- ↑Leave71.1 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave71.1 / 68.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 24.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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