Stoke-on-Trent South
West Midlands · County constituency
About the Stoke-on-Trent South constituency
Stoke-on-Trent South is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Dr Allison Gardner (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.7% to 33.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 627 votes on a 58.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.1% and Labour on 28.6%, a margin of 2.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Stoke-on-Trent South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Stoke-on-Trent South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Stoke-on-Trent South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Stoke-on-Trent South within Stoke-on-Trent and Stafford and 1 other council
Stoke-on-Trent South crosses council boundaries: Stoke-on-Trent (72%), Stafford (16%), Staffordshire Moorlands (12%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent | 72% |
| Stafford | 16% |
| Staffordshire Moorlands | 12% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2024 | Meir North | Lab HOLD | Lab 54% Other 25% Con 21% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barlaston | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 54.0%vs Labour 30.7% | - | 30.1% |
| Blurton | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 52.9%vs Labour 37.2% | - | 28.0% |
| Checkley | Conservative 33.0%vs Labour 28.6% | 2023 Independent 39.9%vs Conservative 37.2% | - | 42.6% |
| Dresden & Florence | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Others 49.5%vs Labour 40.2% | - | 27.1% |
| Forsbrook | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 56.6%vs Labour 15.7% | - | 42.5% |
| Fulford | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.1%vs Conservative 42.9% | - | 34.3% |
| Hanford, Newstead & Trentham | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 34.9% | 2023 Conservative 57.6%vs Labour 32.0% | - | 33.4% |
| Hollybush | Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2023 Labour 55.2%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 24.9% |
| Lightwood North & Normacot | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 57.0%vs Labour 43.0% | - | 60.1% |
| Longton & Meir Hay South | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 44.5% | - | 26.8% |
| Meir Hay North, Parkhall & Weston Coyney | Labour 32.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Labour 38.2% | - | 23.9% |
| Meir North | Labour 39.9%vs Reform 24.8% | 2023 Labour 52.3%vs Others 30.1% | - | 18.8% |
| Meir Park | Conservative 44.2%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Conservative 73.5%vs Labour 19.4% | - | 33.1% |
| Meir South | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 52.5%vs Labour 47.5% | - | 29.3% |
| Swynnerton & Oulton | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 31.6% | 2023 Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 25.3% | - | 39.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Stoke-on-Trent South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Stoke-on-Trent South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Robert Flello | 38.8% | 28.4% | 15.9% | 4,130 | 58.6% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Robert Flello | 39.2% | 32.7% | 3.3% | 2,539 | 57.4%-1.2 |
| 2017 | Con gain from Lab | Jack Brereton | 47.5% | 49.1% | 1.9% | 663 | 63.1%+5.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jack Brereton 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 29.6% | 62.5% | 6.2% | 15,393 | 67.0%+3.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Allison Gardner | 34.7% | 33.2% | 3.9% | 627 | 58.5%-8.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Stoke-on-Trent South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stoke-on-Trent South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave71.1 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave71.1 / 63.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.4 / 14.9vs 20.2
- ↑Leave71.1 / 65.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 25.0vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent12.4 / 14.2vs 20.2
- ↑Leave71.1 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave71.1 / 68.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.1 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.9 / 24.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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