Scunthorpe
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · North Lincolnshire borough
About the Scunthorpe constituency
Scunthorpe is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Sir Nicholas Dakin (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.6% to 30.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,542 votes on a 52.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.0% and the Conservatives on 28.9%, a margin of 2.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Scunthorpe? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Scunthorpe vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Scunthorpe
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Scunthorpe within North Lincolnshire
Scunthorpe sits entirely within North Lincolnshire Council. North Lincolnshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North Lincolnshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar 2026 | Brumby | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 52% Lab 28% Grn 9% |
| 7 Jun 2024 | Brumby | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashby Central | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Labour 60.0%vs Conservative 40.0% | - | 42.9% |
| Ashby Lakeside | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2023 Labour 64.3%vs Conservative 35.7% | - | 37.5% |
| Bottesford | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 35.8% | 2023 Conservative 52.8%vs Labour 43.9% | - | 36.1% |
| Broughton & Scawby | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 33.7% | 2023 Conservative 56.0%vs Labour 38.4% | - | 16.2% |
| Brumby | Labour 43.2%vs Reform 24.0% | 2023 Labour 71.4%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | 16.3% |
| Burringham & Gunness | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Conservative 50.7%vs Labour 29.6% | - | 38.0% |
| Burton upon Stather & Winterton | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 33.0% | 2023 Conservative 60.2%vs Labour 36.8% | - | 37.4% |
| Crosby & Park | Labour 43.3%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2023 Labour 73.2%vs Independent 26.8% | - | 16.0% |
| Frodingham | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2023 Labour 74.8%vs Conservative 25.2% | - | 16.9% |
| Kingsway with Lincoln Gardens | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2023 Labour 66.0%vs Conservative 34.0% | - | 26.4% |
| Messingham | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 32.3% | 2023 Conservative 61.4%vs Labour 38.6% | - | 36.1% |
| Ridge | Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 32.7% | 2023 Conservative 53.4%vs Labour 36.0% | - | 33.9% |
| Town | Labour 46.5%vs Conservative 23.3% | 2023 Labour 73.7%vs Conservative 26.3% | - | 19.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Scunthorpe at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Scunthorpe at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Nick Dakin | 39.5% | 32.6% | 18.3% | 2,549 | 58.7% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Nic Dakin | 41.7% | 33.2% | 2.1% | 3,134 | 57.7%-1.0 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Nic Dakin | 52.0% | 43.5% | 1.4% | 3,431 | 65.3%+7.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Holly Mumby-Croft 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 34.9% | 56.3% | 2.6% | 10,133 | 63.6%-1.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Nicholas Dakin | 39.7% | 30.6% | 2.4% | 3,542 | 52.9%-10.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Scunthorpe
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Scunthorpe. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave68.7 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.9 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 24.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave68.7 / 70.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.9 / 20.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 24.6vs 18.0
- ↑Leave68.7 / 70.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.9 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 24.0vs 18.0
- ↑Leave68.7 / 71.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.9 / 20.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave68.7 / 69.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.9 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 25.9vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.