Bolsover
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Bolsover constituency
Bolsover is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Natalie Fleet (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.5% to 25.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,323 votes on a 55.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.6% and Reform UK on 32.2%, a margin of 0.3 points.
Who lives in Bolsover? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bolsover vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bolsover
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bolsover within Bolsover and North East Derbyshire
Bolsover crosses council boundaries: Bolsover (81%), North East Derbyshire (19%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bolsover | 81% |
| North East Derbyshire | 19% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ault Hucknall | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Labour 53.4%vs Conservative 36.6% | - | 30.8% |
| Barlborough | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 34.5% | 2023 Labour 45.8%vs Conservative 41.8% | - | 36.4% |
| Blackwell | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2023 Labour 50.2%vs Independent 33.7% | - | 27.8% |
| Bolsover East | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2023 Labour 53.0%vs Conservative 29.7% | - | 31.3% |
| Bolsover North & Shuttlewood | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 22.5% | 2023 Labour 73.3%vs Conservative 22.8% | - | 23.2% |
| Bolsover South | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 23.8% | 2023 Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 33.4% |
| Clowne East | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Labour 39.2%vs Independent 35.6% | - | 31.3% |
| Clowne West | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Conservative 54.8%vs Labour 45.2% | - | 26.0% |
| Elmton-with-Creswell | Labour 42.7%vs Conservative 24.2% | 2023 Labour 61.8%vs Conservative 19.6% | - | 26.5% |
| Holmewood & Heath | Labour 43.0%vs Reform 22.6% | 2023 Labour 59.5%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 23.4% |
| Langwith | Labour 45.7%vs Reform 21.7% | 2023 Labour 71.5%vs Conservative 19.8% | - | 20.5% |
| Pilsley & Morton | Labour 45.7%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Labour 52.0%vs Independent 29.2% | - | 38.8% |
| Pinxton | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2023 Labour 60.1%vs Conservative 39.9% | - | 22.8% |
| Shirebrook North | Labour 44.9%vs Reform 22.9% | 2023 Labour 50.6%vs Conservative 27.1% | - | 27.1% |
| Shirebrook South | Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2023 Labour 60.4%vs Conservative 21.4% | - | 24.9% |
| Shirland | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 33.8% | 2023 Conservative 52.1%vs Labour 39.9% | - | 31.3% |
| South Normanton East | Labour 40.2%vs Reform 23.4% | 2023 Labour 39.4%vs Independent 34.6% | - | 22.3% |
| South Normanton West | Labour 39.5%vs Conservative 24.7% | 2023 Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 34.0% | - | 20.4% |
| Sutton | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Labour 56.5%vs Conservative 34.7% | - | 27.1% |
| Tibshelf | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 23.7% | 2023 Independent 67.9%vs Labour 24.6% | - | 23.6% |
| Whitwell | Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2023 Labour 50.3%vs Conservative 22.6% | - | 36.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bolsover at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bolsover at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Dennis Skinner | 50.0% | 24.6% | 15.5% | 11,182 | 60.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Dennis Skinner | 51.2% | 24.5% | 3.3% | 11,778 | 61.1%+0.6 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Dennis Skinner | 51.9% | 40.6% | 2.9% | 5,288 | 63.4%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Fletcher 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 36.2% | 47.7% | 3.8% | 5,273 | 61.2%-2.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Natalie Fleet | 40.5% | 25.6% | 3.5% | 6,323 | 55.0%-6.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bolsover
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bolsover. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave70.4 / 70.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 20.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.0 / 24.6vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.4 / 68.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 22.7vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent15.9 / 15.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave70.4 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 67.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave70.4 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.0 / 24.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.4 / 69.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.0 / 25.9vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.