Mansfield
East Midlands · County constituency · Mansfield borough
About the Mansfield constituency
Mansfield is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Steve Yemm (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.1% to 30.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,485 votes on a 55.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.6% and Labour on 31.4%, a margin of 3.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Mansfield? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mansfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mansfield
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Mansfield within Mansfield
Mansfield sits entirely within Mansfield Council. Mansfield was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Mansfield | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jun 2024 | West Bank | Lab GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bancroft | Labour 43.7%vs Reform 25.0% | 2023 Labour 60.0%vs Others 22.4% | - | - |
| Berry Hill | Conservative 41.9%vs Labour 29.0% | 2023 Conservative 50.7%vs Others 25.6% | - | 27.6% |
| Brick Kiln | Labour 43.7%vs Conservative 29.3% | 2023 Labour 63.0%vs Conservative 18.9% | - | 21.7% |
| Carr Bank | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2023 Labour 45.5%vs Others 38.6% | - | 20.6% |
| Central | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2023 Labour 55.8%vs Others 27.6% | - | - |
| Eakring | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 33.7% | 2023 Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 29.6% |
| Grange Farm | Conservative 35.1%vs Labour 33.6% | 2023 Independent 55.0%vs Labour 24.7% | - | 35.7% |
| Holly Forest Town | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Others 63.8%vs Labour 23.4% | - | - |
| Hornby | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Labour 45.1%vs Conservative 29.7% | - | 34.5% |
| Kings Walk | Labour 36.5%vs Conservative 33.2% | 2023 Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 34.9% | - | 28.0% |
| Kingsway Forest Town | Labour 36.5%vs Conservative 32.9% | 2023 Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 34.1% | - | - |
| Ling Forest | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 33.2% | 2023 Conservative 35.6%vs Others 35.5% | - | 30.9% |
| Manor | Labour 37.4%vs Conservative 33.2% | 2023 Labour 51.2%vs Conservative 29.5% | - | - |
| Market Warsop | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Labour 44.0%vs Independent 34.1% | - | 21.7% |
| Maun Valley Forest Town | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Others 56.0%vs Labour 26.5% | - | - |
| Meden | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Labour 61.9%vs Conservative 23.7% | - | 33.4% |
| Mill Lane | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Labour 47.0%vs Others 30.9% | - | - |
| Netherfield | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 31.9% | 2023 Labour 54.3%vs Independent 24.6% | - | 26.6% |
| Newlands Forest Town | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2023 Others 44.1%vs Labour 33.2% | - | - |
| Oak Tree | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2023 Labour 42.0%vs Conservative 33.6% | - | 23.3% |
| Oakham | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 34.0% | 2023 Labour 44.5%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | 40.9% |
| Park Hall | Labour 38.2%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Labour 41.8%vs Conservative 29.6% | - | 27.2% |
| Penniment | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Labour 46.7%vs Others 40.3% | - | 31.2% |
| Racecourse | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Independent 57.6%vs Labour 27.9% | - | 33.9% |
| Rock Hill | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 27.3% | 2023 Labour 43.4%vs Independent 33.3% | - | - |
| Rufford | Labour 42.0%vs Reform 25.7% | 2023 Others 38.8%vs Labour 38.5% | - | - |
| Sherwood | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Labour 47.6%vs Others 32.9% | - | 28.6% |
| Southwell | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Labour 58.4%vs Conservative 23.1% | - | - |
| Thompsons | Conservative 37.9%vs Labour 32.0% | 2023 Conservative 37.5%vs Others 35.2% | - | - |
| Vale | Labour 47.1%vs Reform 23.9% | 2023 Labour 55.0%vs Others 26.5% | - | - |
| Wainwright | Labour 42.9%vs Reform 25.3% | 2023 Labour 56.7%vs Others 23.3% | - | - |
| Warsop Carrs | Labour 48.7%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2023 Labour 72.3%vs Conservative 16.2% | - | 24.9% |
| West Bank | Conservative 43.2%vs Labour 35.5% | 2023 Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 31.8% | - | - |
| Yeoman Hill | Labour 43.5%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Labour 59.0%vs Conservative 21.9% | - | 23.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mansfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mansfield at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Alan Meale | 38.7% | 26.3% | 15.4% | 6,012 | 60.4% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Alan Meale | 39.4% | 28.2% | 3.5% | 5,315 | 60.9%+0.5 |
| 2017 | Con gain from Lab | Ben Bradley | 44.5% | 46.6% | 1.4% | 1,057 | 64.5%+3.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Ben Bradley 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 30.3% | 64.3% | 3.3% | 16,247 | 63.9%-0.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Steve Yemm | 39.1% | 30.6% | 1.9% | 3,485 | 55.1%-8.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Mansfield
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mansfield. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave70.9 / 70.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 20.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.2 / 24.6vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.9 / 68.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 21.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.2 / 23.4vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.9 / 70.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.2 / 24.0vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.9 / 71.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 20.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.2 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.9 / 68.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.2 / 22.7vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.2 / 22.0vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.