Ashfield
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Ashfield constituency
Ashfield is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Lee Anderson (Reform UK), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Reform UK won with 42.8% to 29.0% for Labour, a majority of 5,508 votes on a 57.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 54.9% and other parties on 22.3%, a margin of 32.6 points.
Who lives in Ashfield? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ashfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ashfield
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ashfield within Ashfield
Ashfield sits almost entirely within Ashfield Council. Ashfield was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Ashfield | 96% |
| Mansfield | 4% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Hill | Reform 41.2%vs Labour 29.4% | 2023 Others 68.1%vs Labour 21.4% | - | 30.2% |
| Annesley & Kirkby Woodhouse | Reform 38.9%vs Labour 30.5% | 2023 Others 55.7%vs Labour 30.8% | - | 35.9% |
| Ashfields | Reform 44.2%vs Labour 26.6% | 2023 Others 45.7%vs Labour 27.9% | - | 30.8% |
| Carsic | Reform 43.2%vs Labour 33.0% | 2023 Labour 45.4%vs Others 32.2% | - | 27.6% |
| Greenwood & Summit | Reform 46.9%vs Labour 27.2% | 2023 Others 61.2%vs Labour 28.4% | - | 25.0% |
| Huthwaite & Brierley | Reform 42.8%vs Labour 29.9% | 2023 Others 44.5%vs Labour 37.0% | - | 34.7% |
| Jacksdale & Westwood | Reform 42.3%vs Labour 25.1% | Sitting Others x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Kingsway | Reform 37.0%vs Labour 31.0% | 2023 Others 57.1%vs Labour 28.5% | - | 32.1% |
| Kirkby Cross & Portland | Reform 42.3%vs Labour 30.7% | 2023 Others 46.6%vs Labour 32.1% | - | 35.1% |
| Larwood | Reform 43.4%vs Labour 26.9% | 2023 Others 61.5%vs Labour 21.6% | - | 32.4% |
| Leamington | Reform 46.0%vs Labour 29.9% | 2023 Others 50.0%vs Labour 37.8% | - | 26.4% |
| Pleasley | Labour 47.7%vs Reform 31.4% | 2023 Labour 48.9%vs Conservative 20.1% | - | - |
| Rufford | Labour 42.0%vs Reform 25.7% | 2023 Others 38.8%vs Labour 38.5% | - | - |
| Selston | Reform 46.2%vs Labour 25.2% | 2023 Others 54.6%vs Labour 24.1% | - | 32.7% |
| Skegby | Reform 44.5%vs Labour 27.1% | 2023 Others 45.9%vs Labour 32.0% | - | 31.9% |
| Stanton Hill & Teversal | Reform 42.4%vs Labour 30.8% | 2023 Others 46.0%vs Labour 41.1% | - | 35.9% |
| Sutton Central & New Cross | Reform 47.0%vs Labour 26.7% | 2023 Others 47.5%vs Conservative 26.4% | - | 27.3% |
| Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood | Reform 44.5%vs Labour 24.4% | 2023 Others 55.2%vs Conservative 27.3% | - | 35.2% |
| Sutton St Mary's | Reform 43.8%vs Labour 28.1% | 2023 Others 38.4%vs Conservative 32.2% | - | 33.4% |
| The Dales | Reform 44.7%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Others 45.5%vs Labour 31.0% | - | 33.2% |
| Underwood | Reform 46.4%vs Labour 19.2% | 2023 Conservative 46.2%vs Others 43.0% | - | 45.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ashfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ashfield at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Gloria de Piero | 33.7% | 22.2% | 33.3% | 192 | 62.3% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Gloria De Piero | 41.0% | 22.4% | 14.8% | 8,820 | 61.5%-0.8 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Gloria De Piero | 42.6% | 41.7% | 1.9% | 441 | 64.0%+2.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Lee Anderson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 25.6% | 39.2% | 2.1% | 5,303 | 61.5%-2.5 |
| 2024 | RUK gain from Con | Lee Anderson | 29.0% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 5,508 | 57.9%-3.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ashfield
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ashfield. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave70.5 / 70.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.5 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.6 / 24.0vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.5 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.5 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.6 / 24.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.5 / 68.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.5 / 22.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.8 / 67.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave70.5 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.5 / 19.0vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.6 / 25.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.5 / 68.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.5 / 21.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.6 / 23.4vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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