North East Cambridgeshire
East of England · County constituency · Fenland borough
About the North East Cambridgeshire constituency
North East Cambridgeshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Steve Barclay (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 41.5% to 23.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 7,189 votes on a 54.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.5% and the Conservatives on 33.4%, a margin of 5.1 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in North East Cambridgeshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North East Cambridgeshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North East Cambridgeshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North East Cambridgeshire within Fenland
North East Cambridgeshire sits entirely within Fenland Council. Fenland was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Fenland | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2025 | Whittlesey North West | Con HOLD | Con 48% Ref 34% Other 12% |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Whittlesey South | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chatteris North & Manea | Conservative 40.0%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Conservative 62.2%vs Green 25.9% | - | 25.0% |
| Chatteris South | Conservative 39.4%vs Reform 23.9% | 2023 Conservative 52.9%vs Independent 22.4% | - | 26.0% |
| Doddington & Wimblington | Conservative 44.3%vs Reform 22.4% | 2023 Conservative 66.7%vs Labour 23.2% | - | 30.8% |
| Elm & Christchurch | Conservative 39.3%vs Reform 25.9% | 2023 Independent 47.9%vs Conservative 40.2% | - | 27.1% |
| Leverington & Wisbech Rural | Conservative 47.0%vs Reform 22.1% | 2023 Conservative 72.5%vs Others 11.7% | - | 30.0% |
| March East | Conservative 38.9%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 33.4% | - | 28.2% |
| March North | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 24.4% | 2023 Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 28.4% | - | 37.2% |
| March South | Conservative 40.9%vs Reform 22.6% | 2023 Conservative 56.2%vs Labour 32.0% | - | 27.0% |
| March West & Benwick | Conservative 43.5%vs Reform 21.5% | 2023 Conservative 75.1%vs Labour 24.9% | - | 25.0% |
| Parson Drove & Wisbech St Mary | Conservative 40.8%vs Reform 22.4% | 2023 Conservative 48.3%vs Lib Dem 46.3% | - | 38.0% |
| Whittlesey East & Villages | Conservative 44.2%vs Reform 21.9% | 2023 Conservative 62.7%vs Independent 17.1% | - | 26.0% |
| Whittlesey Lattersey | Conservative 41.1%vs Reform 23.1% | 2023 Conservative 61.3%vs Labour 38.7% | - | 25.0% |
| Whittlesey North West | Conservative 44.0%vs Reform 22.1% | 2023 Conservative 71.5%vs Labour 14.8% | - | 26.0% |
| Whittlesey South | Conservative 41.7%vs Reform 23.7% | 2023 Conservative 54.5%vs Independent 45.5% | - | 29.0% |
| Wisbech North | Conservative 39.7%vs Reform 26.4% | 2023 Conservative 60.2%vs Independent 39.8% | - | 17.0% |
| Wisbech Riverside | Conservative 40.2%vs Reform 23.4% | 2023 Conservative 76.9%vs Labour 23.1% | - | 20.0% |
| Wisbech South | Conservative 41.4%vs Reform 24.7% | 2023 Conservative 71.5%vs Independent 28.5% | - | 25.0% |
| Wisbech Walsoken & Waterlees | Conservative 41.0%vs Reform 24.3% | 2023 Conservative 54.8%vs Independent 45.2% | - | 25.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North East Cambridgeshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North East Cambridgeshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Stephen Barclay | 17.8% | 51.6% | 20.0% | 16,425 | 71.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Stephen Barclay | 14.4% | 55.1% | 4.5% | 16,874 | 62.4%-8.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Stephen Barclay | 24.5% | 64.4% | 4.5% | 21,270 | 63.1%+0.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Stephen Barclay 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 16.0% | 73.9% | 6.7% | 25,779 | 63.0%-0.1 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Steve Barclay | 20.4% | 41.5% | 6.9% | 7,189 | 54.8%-8.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North East Cambridgeshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North East Cambridgeshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave69.3 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.0 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.8 / 23.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave69.3 / 70.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.0 / 20.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.8 / 24.6vs 18.0
- ↑Leave69.3 / 71.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.0 / 21.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.8 / 23.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave69.3 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.0 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.8 / 24.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave69.3 / 70.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.0 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.8 / 24.0vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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