Peterborough
East of England · County constituency · Peterborough borough
About the Peterborough constituency
Peterborough is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Andrew Pakes (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 32.0% to 31.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 118 votes on a 57.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 27.6% and the Conservatives on 23.5%, a margin of 4.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Peterborough? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Peterborough vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Peterborough
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Peterborough within Peterborough
Peterborough sits entirely within Peterborough Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bretton | Labour 33.3%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Reform 33.0%vs Conservative 30.1% | Labour→Reform +17.0pp | 30.8% |
| Central | Labour 43.6%vs Conservative 24.8% | May 2026 Labour 34.6%vs Green 33.5% | Labour share -9.0pp | 34.2% |
| Dogsthorpe | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 28.1% | May 2026 Conservative 31.0%vs Reform 25.9% | Labour→Conservative +11.0pp | 32.0% |
| East | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 28.3% | Labour share -1.7pp | 34.6% |
| Eye, Thorney and Newborough | Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 24.6% | May 2026 Reform 43.5%vs Conservative 34.2% | Conservative→Reform +18.8pp | 41.6% |
| Gunthorpe | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 22.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.5%vs Reform 33.7% | Conservative→Lib Dem +28.8pp | 39.7% |
| North | Labour 39.2%vs Conservative 27.3% | May 2026 Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 31.6% | Labour→Conservative +7.6pp | 32.6% |
| Park | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 33.9% | May 2026 Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 22.9% | Labour→Conservative +8.0pp | 39.4% |
| Paston and Walton | Labour 28.3%vs Conservative 27.8% | May 2026 Conservative 37.8%vs Lib Dem 27.0% | Labour→Conservative +15.6pp | 35.8% |
| Ravensthorpe | Conservative 33.1%vs Labour 32.1% | May 2026 Conservative 40.5%vs Green 23.4% | Conservative share +7.5pp | 39.6% |
| Werrington | Others 27.3%vs Conservative 26.3% | May 2026 Others 46.9%vs Reform 31.7% | Others→Others +37.1pp | 40.7% |
| West | Conservative 43.0%vs Labour 27.9% | 2024 Conservative 43.2%vs Labour 30.8% | - | 37.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Peterborough at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Peterborough at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Stewart Jackson | 29.5% | 40.4% | 19.6% | 4,861 | 63.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Stewart Jackson | 35.6% | 39.7% | 3.8% | 1,925 | 64.9%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Fiona Onasanya | 48.1% | 46.8% | 3.3% | 607 | 66.7%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Paul Bristow 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 41.5% | 46.5% | 4.9% | 2,333 | 65.4%-1.3 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Andrew Pakes | 32.0% | 31.8% | 4.2% | 118 | 57.1%-8.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Peterborough
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Peterborough. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave62.7 / 63.6vs 53.2
- ↑No quals25.4 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied52.6 / 52.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave62.7 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 25.4vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.6 / 51.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent25.4 / 25.4vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+18.3 / 16.1vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.6 / 50.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave62.7 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied52.6 / 52.8vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 26.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals25.4 / 24.3vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.