Burnley
North West · County constituency
About the Burnley constituency
Burnley is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Oliver Ryan (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 31.7% to 23.1% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 3,420 votes on a 53.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.1% and Labour on 24.0%, a margin of 7.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Burnley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Burnley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Burnley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Burnley within Burnley and Pendle
Burnley crosses council boundaries: Burnley (87%), Pendle (13%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 87% | View projection › |
| Pendle | 13% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Hall | Labour 39.6%vs Lib Dem 21.6% | May 2026 Others 56.2%vs Reform 31.0% | Labour→Others +41.5pp | 37.6% |
| Briercliffe | Lib Dem 35.8%vs Labour 24.4% | May 2026 Reform 51.0%vs Lib Dem 40.1% | Lib Dem→Reform +14.3pp | 45.8% |
| Brierfield East & Clover Hill | Labour 33.8%vs Conservative 23.9% | May 2026 Others 53.7%vs Reform 20.7% | Labour→Others +40.4pp | 39.5% |
| Brierfield West & Reedley | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 19.8% | 2024 Independent 75.6%vs Conservative 16.4% | - | 48.0% |
| Brunshaw | Labour 32.4%vs Lib Dem 23.3% | May 2026 Reform 57.4%vs Green 19.5% | Labour→Reform +25.6pp | 34.9% |
| Cliviger with Worsthorne | Conservative 35.1%vs Labour 20.3% | May 2026 Reform 51.6%vs Conservative 21.8% | Conservative→Reform +23.0pp | 52.6% |
| Coal Clough with Deerplay | Lib Dem 32.7%vs Labour 26.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.6%vs Reform 39.8% | Lib Dem share +11.9pp | 40.4% |
| Daneshouse with Stoneyholme | Labour 46.3%vs Lib Dem 21.4% | May 2026 Others 57.1%vs Lib Dem 29.5% | Labour→Others +47.6pp | 38.1% |
| Gannow | Labour 32.9%vs Reform 23.9% | May 2026 Reform 47.6%vs Conservative 29.3% | Labour→Reform +22.4pp | 34.0% |
| Gawthorpe | Labour 32.6%vs Lib Dem 22.1% | May 2026 Reform 54.9%vs Labour 27.1% | Labour→Reform +19.7pp | 35.9% |
| Hapton with Park | Labour 26.4%vs Conservative 25.8% | May 2026 Reform 46.0%vs Conservative 34.4% | Labour→Reform +19.7pp | 39.7% |
| Lanehead | Labour 36.3%vs Lib Dem 22.0% | May 2026 Reform 32.1%vs Others 24.2% | Labour→Reform +18.3pp | 45.1% |
| Queensgate | Labour 39.1%vs Lib Dem 21.8% | May 2026 Others 54.9%vs Reform 24.4% | Labour→Others +40.0pp | 37.5% |
| Rosegrove with Lowerhouse | Labour 33.9%vs Reform 22.6% | May 2026 Reform 56.9%vs Labour 18.9% | Labour→Reform +24.6pp | 32.5% |
| Rosehill with Burnley Wood | Lib Dem 31.0%vs Labour 28.9% | May 2026 Reform 57.0%vs Green 15.3% | Lib Dem→Reform +29.5pp | 35.3% |
| Trinity | Labour 28.4%vs Lib Dem 24.8% | May 2026 Reform 51.3%vs Green 36.0% | Labour→Reform +21.9pp | 29.8% |
| Whittlefield with Ightenhill | Conservative 30.4%vs Labour 23.8% | May 2026 Reform 47.8%vs Conservative 27.4% | Conservative→Reform +15.6pp | 46.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Burnley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Burnley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD gain from Lab | Gordon Birtwistle | 31.3% | 16.6% | 35.7% | 1,818 | 62.8% |
| 2015 | Lab gain from LD | Julie Cooper | 37.6% | 13.5% | 29.5% | 3,244 | 61.6%-1.2 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Julie Cooper | 46.7% | 31.0% | 15.0% | 6,353 | 62.3%+0.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Antony Higginbotham 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 40.2% | 40.5% | 7.7% | 127 | 62.4%+0.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Oliver Ryan | 31.7% | 20.3% | 23.1% | 3,420 | 53.0%-9.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Burnley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Burnley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave66.6 / 65.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.6 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.8 / 22.5vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate24.6 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave66.6 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals24.8 / 22.3vs 18.0
- ↑Leave66.6 / 63.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.6 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.8 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave66.6 / 60.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.6 / 28.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.8 / 21.5vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate24.6 / 26.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave66.6 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑No quals24.8 / 23.1vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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