Mid Dunbartonshire
Scotland · County constituency · East Dunbartonshire borough
About the Mid Dunbartonshire constituency
Mid Dunbartonshire is a county constituency in Scotland, covering most or all of East Dunbartonshire. The sitting MP is Susan Murray (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won Mid Dunbartonshire with 42.4% of the vote, ahead of the SNP on 24.0%, a majority of 9,673 votes. Turnout was 71.7%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 43.6% and the SNP on 30.2% in Mid Dunbartonshire, a margin of 13.4 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Mid Dunbartonshire is a strongly Remain-voting area (an estimated 34.8% voted Leave in 2016). About 57.4% of residents hold a degree, 85.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 47 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Liberal Democrats 3 times, the SNP 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Mid Dunbartonshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid Dunbartonshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid Dunbartonshire
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Mid Dunbartonshire voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Mid Dunbartonshire crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Strathkelvin and Bearsden (76%), Clydebank and Milngavie (20%), Stirling (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Mid Dunbartonshire | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strathkelvin and Bearsden | 76% | Liberal Democrats 39.5% | SNP 33.0% | Adam Harley |
| Clydebank and Milngavie | 20% | SNP 38.6% | Labour 25.2% | Marie McNair |
| Stirling | 1% | SNP 42.4% | Conservative 19.2% | Alyn Smith |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Mid Dunbartonshire within East Dunbartonshire
The Westminster constituency of Mid Dunbartonshire sits entirely within East Dunbartonshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and East Dunbartonshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| East Dunbartonshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | Bearsden South | LD GAIN from Con | LD 38% SNP 17% Ref 16% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid Dunbartonshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid Dunbartonshire at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Jo Swinson East Dunbartonshire MP | 34.1% | 15.5% | 38.7% | 2,184 | 75.2% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from LD | John Nicolson East Dunbartonshire MP | 12.3% | 8.6% | 36.3% | 2,167 | 81.9%+6.7 |
| 2017predecessor | LD gain from SNP | Jo Swinson East Dunbartonshire MP | 14.5% | 14.6% | 40.6% | 5,339 | 78.1%-3.8 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Amy Callaghan East Dunbartonshire MP, pre-review boundary | 9.4% | 15.6% | 34.5% | 1,986 | 78.0% |
| 2024 | LD gain from SNP | Susan Murray | 20.8% | 4.6% | 42.4% | 9,673 | 71.7%-6.3 |
Mid Dunbartonshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat East Dunbartonshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Mid Dunbartonshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Dunbartonshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 56.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 82.6vs 61.9
- ↓Leave34.8 / 25.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 58.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave34.8 / 28.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 51.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 79.4vs 61.9
- ↓Leave34.8 / 41.0vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 51.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 77.0vs 61.9
- ↓Leave34.8 / 39.2vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↓Leave34.8 / 41.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 46.2vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.