Mid Dunbartonshire
Scotland · County constituency · East Dunbartonshire borough
About the Mid Dunbartonshire constituency
Mid Dunbartonshire is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Susan Murray (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 42.4% to 24.0% for the SNP, a majority of 9,673 votes on a 71.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 40.0% and the SNP on 28.8%, a margin of 11.1 points.
Who lives in Mid Dunbartonshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Mid Dunbartonshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Mid Dunbartonshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Mid Dunbartonshire voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Mid Dunbartonshire crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Strathkelvin and Bearsden (76%), Clydebank and Milngavie (20%), Stirling (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Mid Dunbartonshire | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strathkelvin and Bearsden | 76% | Liberal Democrats 39.5% | SNP 33.0% | Adam Harley |
| Clydebank and Milngavie | 20% | SNP 38.6% | Labour 25.2% | Marie McNair |
| Stirling | 1% | SNP 42.4% | Conservative 19.2% | Alyn Smith |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Mid Dunbartonshire within East Dunbartonshire
Mid Dunbartonshire sits entirely within East Dunbartonshire Council. East Dunbartonshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| East Dunbartonshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | Bearsden South | LD GAIN from Con | LD 38% SNP 17% Ref 16% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearsden North | Lib Dem 46.9%vs SNP 23.5% | 2022 Independent 38.3%vs SNP 19.1% | - | 57.9% |
| Bearsden South | Lib Dem 51.4%vs SNP 19.7% | 2022 SNP 23.4%vs Conservative 23.2% | - | 56.1% |
| Bishopbriggs South | Lib Dem 35.8%vs SNP 27.6% | 2022 SNP 36.9%vs Labour 27.2% | - | 49.2% |
| Kirkintilloch East and Twechar | Labour 40.6%vs SNP 31.8% | No council data | - | - |
| Lenzie and Kirkintilloch South | Lib Dem 42.7%vs SNP 24.9% | 2022 SNP 33.2%vs Labour 21.0% | - | 52.0% |
| Milngavie | Lib Dem 46.0%vs SNP 22.8% | 2022 SNP 25.1%vs Conservative 20.7% | - | 58.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Mid Dunbartonshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Mid Dunbartonshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Jo Swinson East Dunbartonshire MP | 34.1% | 15.5% | 38.7% | 2,184 | 75.2% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP gain from LD | John Nicolson East Dunbartonshire MP | 12.3% | 8.6% | 36.3% | 2,167 | 81.9%+6.7 |
| 2017predecessor | LD gain from SNP | Jo Swinson East Dunbartonshire MP | 14.5% | 14.6% | 40.6% | 5,339 | 78.1%-3.8 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Amy Callaghan East Dunbartonshire MP, pre-review boundary | 9.4% | 15.6% | 34.5% | 1,986 | 78.0% |
| 2024 | LD gain from SNP | Susan Murray | 20.8% | 4.6% | 42.4% | 9,673 | 71.7%-6.3 |
Mid Dunbartonshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat East Dunbartonshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Mid Dunbartonshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Dunbartonshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 56.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 82.6vs 61.9
- ↓Leave34.8 / 25.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 58.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave34.8 / 28.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 51.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 79.4vs 61.9
- ↓Leave34.8 / 41.0vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 51.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 77.0vs 61.9
- ↓Leave34.8 / 39.2vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied85.7 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↓Leave34.8 / 41.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate57.4 / 46.2vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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