West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Scotland · County constituency · Aberdeenshire
About the West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine constituency
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Andrew Bowie (Conservative), MP since June 2017. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.6% to 28.6% for the SNP, a majority of 3,441 votes on a 67.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 38.8% and the SNP on 23.5%, a margin of 15.2 points.
Who lives in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Aberdeenshire West (79%), Angus North and Mearns (17%), Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine (3%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeenshire West | 79% | Conservative 42.9% | SNP 27.3% | Alexander Burnett |
| Angus North and Mearns | 17% | SNP 39.0% | Conservative 27.8% | Dawn Black |
| Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine | 3% | SNP 34.1% | Conservative 30.5% | Stephen Flynn |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine within Aberdeenshire
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine sits entirely within Aberdeenshire Council. Aberdeenshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Aberdeenshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2024 | Mearns | Con GAIN from SNP | Con 39% SNP 24% LD 22% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside | Conservative 42.5%vs SNP 27.3% | 2022 Conservative 34.5%Independent 22.7%, SNP 21.7%, Lib Dem 17.5%, Labour 3.7% | - | 53.4% |
| Banchory and Mid Deeside | Conservative 40.9%vs SNP 24.8% | 2022 Conservative 42.7%SNP 24.0%, Lib Dem 21.5%, Labour 11.1%, Others 0.7% | - | 53.1% |
| East Garioch | SNP 40.4%vs Conservative 31.8% | 2022 SNP 41.0%Conservative 27.4%, Independent 14.5%, Lib Dem 9.4%, Labour 7.7% | - | 40.5% |
| Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford | Conservative 44.0%vs SNP 20.9% | 2022 Conservative 40.4%SNP 34.5%, Lib Dem 13.9%, Labour 7.8%, Independent 2.7%, Others 0.6% | - | 46.4% |
| Mearns | Conservative 40.6%vs SNP 34.1% | 2022 Conservative 31.8%SNP 29.0%, Independent 20.9%, Lib Dem 6.5%, Labour 5.8%, Green 3.4%, Others 2.6% | - | 28.0% |
| North Kincardine | SNP 31.9%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2022 SNP 36.2%Conservative 26.9%, Lib Dem 15.5%, Independent 14.3%, Green 5.7%, Others 1.4% | - | 43.9% |
| Stonehaven and Lower Deeside | SNP 32.4%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2022 Conservative 32.0%SNP 27.0%, Lib Dem 22.7%, Independent 8.3%, Labour 6.9%, Green 3.1% | - | 49.0% |
| West Garioch | Conservative 34.5%vs SNP 34.3% | 2022 SNP 29.4%Conservative 27.1%, Independent 17.1%, Lib Dem 12.7%, Labour 7.7%, Green 4.3%, Others 1.7% | - | 45.9% |
| Westhill and District | Conservative 39.2%vs SNP 26.2% | 2022 Conservative 39.6%Lib Dem 26.2%, SNP 25.1%, Labour 7.6%, Others 1.5% | - | 47.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Robert Smith | 13.6% | 30.3% | 38.4% | 15.7% | 3,684 | 68.4% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from LD | Stuart Donaldson | 4.5% | 28.8% | 21.4% | 41.6% | 7,033 | 75.2%+6.8 |
| 2017 | Con gain from SNP | Andrew Bowie | 11.1% | 47.9% | 8.6% | 32.5% | 7,950 | 71.2%-4.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Bowie 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 4.6% | 42.7% | 11.7% | 41.1% | 843 | 72.4%+1.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Andrew Bowie | 13.1% | 35.6% | 13.0% | 28.6% | 3,441 | 67.1%-5.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 51.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied77.0 / 75.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.1 / 22.0vs 30.2
- ↓Leave39.2 / 35.4vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.0 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 42.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.2 / 36.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.0 / 73.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent9.7 / 9.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.0 / 72.6vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 44.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.2 / 43.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.0 / 76.3vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate51.5 / 45.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent9.7 / 9.0vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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