Great Yarmouth
East of England · County constituency · Great Yarmouth borough
About the Great Yarmouth constituency
Great Yarmouth is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Rupert Lowe (Restore Britain), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Reform UK won with 35.3% to 31.8% for Labour, a majority of 1,426 votes on a 55.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Restore Britain on 36.9% and Labour on 23.2%, a margin of 13.7 points - a projected change of hands from Reform UK.
Who lives in Great Yarmouth? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Great Yarmouth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Great Yarmouth
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Great Yarmouth within Great Yarmouth
Great Yarmouth sits entirely within Great Yarmouth Council. Great Yarmouth was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Great Yarmouth | 100% |
Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breydon | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 46% Ref 21% Con 15% | 49.5% |
| Gorleston | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 41% Ref 16% Grn 15% | 47.0% |
| Lothingland | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 43% Ref 21% Con 17% | 48.2% |
| Magdalen | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 50% Ref 19% Grn 13% | 41.5% |
| North Caister & Ormesby | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 48% Ref 21% Con 11% | 53.2% |
| South Caister & Bure | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 47% Ref 23% Grn 10% | 50.0% |
| The Fleggs | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 42% Ref 20% Con 19% | 53.2% |
| Yarmouth Nelson & Southtown | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 48% Grn 17% Ref 17% | 35.3% |
| Yarmouth North & Central | Great Yarmouth First | Great Yarmouth First 51% Ref 17% Grn 12% | 35.4% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2024 | Central and Northgate | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradwell North | Reform 34.7%vs Labour 32.2% | 2023 Conservative 53.1%vs Labour 46.9% | - | 32.2% |
| Bradwell South and Hopton | Reform 35.6%vs Labour 29.2% | 2023 Conservative 49.3%vs Labour 42.2% | - | 31.4% |
| Caister North | Reform 31.7%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Conservative 57.0%vs Labour 34.6% | - | 32.2% |
| Caister South | Reform 31.9%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 58.2%vs Labour 41.8% | - | 29.8% |
| Central and Northgate | Labour 35.0%vs Reform 34.3% | 2023 Labour 58.3%vs Conservative 29.0% | - | 22.4% |
| Claydon | Reform 39.4%vs Labour 33.1% | 2023 Labour 67.6%vs Conservative 32.4% | - | 21.5% |
| East Flegg | Reform 36.6%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2023 Conservative 57.6%vs Green 21.8% | - | 32.4% |
| Fleggburgh | Reform 40.6%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Independent 94.6%vs Conservative 3.1% | - | 53.3% |
| Gorleston | Reform 34.3%vs Labour 32.3% | 2023 Conservative 50.9%vs Labour 36.1% | - | 33.2% |
| Lothingland | Reform 38.4%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 46.9%vs Labour 31.6% | - | 32.2% |
| Magdalen | Labour 37.1%vs Reform 37.0% | 2023 Labour 61.4%vs Conservative 27.5% | - | 29.0% |
| Nelson | Labour 37.4%vs Reform 34.1% | 2023 Labour 67.0%vs Conservative 28.1% | - | 17.2% |
| Ormesby | Reform 36.7%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 47.9%vs Labour 26.5% | - | 37.3% |
| Southtown and Cobholm | Labour 37.7%vs Reform 35.1% | 2023 Labour 62.3%vs Conservative 31.7% | - | 19.3% |
| St Andrews | Labour 36.9%vs Reform 36.2% | 2023 Labour 65.8%vs Conservative 34.1% | - | 25.0% |
| West Flegg | Reform 35.9%vs Labour 28.7% | 2023 Conservative 63.5%vs Labour 36.5% | - | 29.4% |
| Yarmouth North | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 43.7% | - | 33.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Great Yarmouth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Great Yarmouth at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Brandon Lewis | 33.2% | 43.1% | 14.4% | 4,276 | 61.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Brandon Lewis | 29.1% | 42.9% | 2.3% | 6,154 | 63.7%+2.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Brandon Lewis | 36.1% | 54.1% | 2.2% | 7,973 | 61.8%-1.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Brandon Lewis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 25.1% | 65.8% | 3.8% | 17,663 | 62.0%+0.2 |
| 2024 | RUK gain from Con | Rupert Lowe | 31.8% | 24.6% | 2.7% | 1,426 | 55.6%-6.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Great Yarmouth
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Great Yarmouth. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave71.5 / 75.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.2 / 18.1vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.5 / 29.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave71.5 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.2 / 19.0vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.5 / 25.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave71.5 / 71.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.2 / 20.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.5 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave71.5 / 70.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.2 / 20.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.5 / 24.6vs 18.0
- ↑Leave71.5 / 68.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.2 / 21.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.5 / 23.4vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.