Boston and Skegness
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Boston and Skegness constituency
Boston and Skegness is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Richard Tice (Reform UK), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Reform UK won with 38.4% to 33.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,010 votes on a 53.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 50.8% and the Conservatives on 26.7%, a margin of 24.0 points.
Who lives in Boston and Skegness? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Boston and Skegness vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Boston and Skegness
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Boston and Skegness within Boston and East Lindsey
Boston and Skegness crosses council boundaries: Boston (58%), East Lindsey (42%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Boston | 58% |
| East Lindsey | 42% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | Chapel St Leonards | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 66% Con 16% Other 8% |
| 1 May 2025 | Trinity | Ref GAIN from Other | Ref 39% Other 29% Con 24% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Croft | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgh le Marsh | Reform 37.4%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2023 Others 48.3%vs Conservative 26.6% | - | 27.9% |
| Chapel St Leonards | Reform 36.5%vs Conservative 36.0% | 2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Labour 26.2% | - | 34.1% |
| Coastal | Conservative 35.5%vs Reform 35.1% | 2023 Independent 45.4%vs Others 38.4% | - | 43.1% |
| Croft | Conservative 46.1%vs Reform 35.0% | 2019 Conservative 64.2%vs Independent 20.6% | - | 32.9% |
| Fenside | Reform 40.7%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Others 44.5%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 29.0% |
| Fishtoft | Reform 37.2%vs Conservative 33.2% | 2023 Others 63.3%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 30.1% |
| Five Village | Conservative 36.4%vs Reform 36.0% | 2023 Conservative 59.4%vs Others 23.6% | - | 33.9% |
| Friskney | Reform 39.1%vs Conservative 33.8% | 2023 Independent 60.0%vs Conservative 40.0% | - | 23.3% |
| Ingoldmells | Reform 38.9%vs Conservative 34.4% | 2023 Conservative 59.9%vs Others 40.1% | - | 24.3% |
| Kirton and Frampton | Reform 37.6%vs Conservative 34.0% | 2023 Conservative 34.1%vs Others 33.5% | - | 25.4% |
| Old Leake and Wrangle | Conservative 41.8%vs Reform 30.6% | 2023 Others 63.8%vs Conservative 24.3% | - | 37.6% |
| Scarbrough & Seacroft | Reform 41.9%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Conservative 49.3%vs Others 37.3% | - | 23.5% |
| Sibsey & Stickney | Conservative 42.1%vs Reform 34.7% | 2019 Conservative 87.0%vs Labour 13.0% | - | 27.0% |
| Skirbeck | Reform 43.0%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Others 63.7%vs Independent 16.6% | - | 26.3% |
| St Clement's | Reform 43.1%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2023 Others 37.8%vs Labour 33.2% | - | 19.9% |
| St Thomas' | Reform 45.5%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2023 Independent 61.5%vs Others 32.9% | - | 24.5% |
| Staniland | Reform 40.3%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Others 57.3%vs Conservative 42.7% | - | 29.6% |
| Station | Reform 37.7%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Others 71.4%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | 18.6% |
| Swineshead and Holland Fen | Conservative 38.5%vs Reform 35.7% | 2023 Others 54.1%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | 46.2% |
| Trinity | Reform 38.6%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Others 57.3%vs Conservative 42.7% | - | 29.5% |
| Wainfleet | Conservative 38.5%vs Reform 37.2% | 2019 Conservative 76.1%vs Labour 23.9% | - | 26.2% |
| West | Reform 36.7%vs Conservative 35.1% | 2023 Independent 72.1%vs Conservative 27.9% | - | 30.2% |
| Willoughby with Sloothby | Reform 38.9%vs Conservative 35.2% | 2023 Independent 82.1%vs Labour 17.9% | - | 31.1% |
| Winthorpe | Reform 42.8%vs Conservative 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 39.6%vs Others 35.2% | - | 20.7% |
| Witham | Reform 37.4%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Others 72.9%vs Conservative 19.2% | - | 23.5% |
| Wyberton | Reform 36.6%vs Conservative 33.5% | 2023 Others 39.1%vs Independent 36.7% | - | 30.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Boston and Skegness at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Boston and Skegness at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Mark Simmonds | 20.6% | 49.4% | 14.8% | 12,426 | 64.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Matt Warman | 16.5% | 43.8% | 2.3% | 4,336 | 64.6%+0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Matt Warman | 25.0% | 63.6% | 1.8% | 16,572 | 62.7%-1.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Matt Warman 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.6% | 76.4% | 4.8% | 27,402 | 59.4%-3.3 |
| 2024 | RUK gain from Con | Richard Tice | 18.9% | 33.4% | 3.4% | 2,010 | 53.4%-6.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Boston and Skegness
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Boston and Skegness. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave75.7 / 71.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.1 / 18.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.1 / 26.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave75.7 / 71.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.1 / 20.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.1 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave75.7 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.1 / 19.0vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.1 / 25.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave75.7 / 70.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.1 / 19.6vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.1 / 26.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave75.7 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.1 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.1 / 24.2vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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