Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · North East Lincolnshire borough
About the Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes constituency
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Melanie Onn (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.9% to 28.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 4,803 votes on a 48.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.8% and Labour on 27.1%, a margin of 11.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes within North East Lincolnshire
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes sits entirely within North East Lincolnshire Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| North East Lincolnshire | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croft Baker | Labour 43.5%vs Reform 28.2% | May 2026 Reform 51.4%vs Labour 19.9% | Labour→Reform +23.4pp | - |
| East Marsh | Labour 41.7%vs Reform 32.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.3%vs Reform 34.5% | Labour→Lib Dem +36.3pp | - |
| Freshney | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 28.1% | May 2026 Reform 39.6%vs Others 35.2% | Labour→Reform +21.7pp | - |
| Haverstoe | Labour 34.1%vs Conservative 30.2% | May 2026 Reform 49.7%vs Conservative 28.9% | Labour→Reform +20.9pp | - |
| Heneage | Labour 44.2%vs Reform 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 44.5%vs Lib Dem 23.6% | Labour→Reform +20.7pp | - |
| Park | Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 28.0% | May 2026 Reform 37.4%vs Labour 23.8% | Labour→Reform +16.3pp | - |
| Sidney Sussex | Labour 44.0%vs Reform 29.4% | May 2026 Reform 54.7%vs Labour 17.2% | Labour→Reform +26.1pp | - |
| South | Labour 45.0%vs Reform 29.5% | May 2026 Reform 56.9%vs Labour 22.1% | Labour→Reform +25.1pp | - |
| West Marsh | Labour 45.5%vs Reform 29.6% | May 2026 Reform 49.7%vs Labour 22.4% | Labour→Reform +21.6pp | - |
| Yarborough | Labour 38.7%vs Reform 31.7% | May 2026 Reform 48.6%vs Others 25.0% | Labour→Reform +23.1pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Austin Mitchell Great Grimsby MP | 32.7% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 714 | 53.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Melanie Onn Great Grimsby MP | 39.8% | 26.3% | 5.0% | 4,540 | 57.0%+3.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Melanie Onn Great Grimsby MP | 49.4% | 42.2% | 2.7% | 2,565 | 57.5%+0.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Lia Nici Great Grimsby MP, pre-review boundary | 32.2% | 55.6% | 4.9% | 9,759 | 54.1% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Melanie Onn | 41.9% | 22.6% | 2.8% | 4,803 | 48.1%-6.0 |
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Great Grimsby (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave70.5 / 69.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.6 / 20.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 27.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.5 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.6 / 22.1vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 25.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.5 / 71.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.6 / 18.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 26.5vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.5 / 75.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.6 / 18.1vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 29.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.5 / 71.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate19.6 / 20.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.2 / 25.5vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.