Bradford West
Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · Bradford borough
About the Bradford West constituency
Bradford West is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Naz Shah (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, other parties won with 40.2% to 31.6% for Labour, a majority of 707 votes on a 47.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 39.5% and the Greens on 18.4%, a margin of 21.1 points.
Who lives in Bradford West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bradford West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bradford West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bradford West within Bradford
Bradford West sits entirely within Bradford Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| City | Others 41.9%vs Labour 30.8% | May 2026 Labour 43.9%vs Green 24.0% | Others→Labour +27.5pp | - |
| Clayton and Fairweather Green | Others 35.8%vs Labour 32.6% | May 2026 Reform 31.2%vs Labour 27.4% | Others→Reform +28.4pp | - |
| Heaton | Others 41.4%vs Labour 30.9% | May 2026 Green 42.5%vs Others 32.0%now part of Heaton Frizinghall | Others→Green +36.0pp | - |
| Manningham | Others 45.8%vs Labour 30.1% | May 2026 Others 62.5%vs Labour 21.2% | Others→Others +54.1pp | - |
| Thornton and Allerton | Others 33.7%vs Labour 33.4% | May 2026 Reform 33.6%vs Labour 23.3% | Others→Reform +28.0pp | - |
| Toller | Others 42.9%vs Labour 32.1% | May 2026 Others 39.2%vs Labour 34.3% | Others→Others +41.1pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bradford West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bradford West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Marsha Singh | 45.3% | 31.1% | 11.7% | 5,763 | 64.9% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Naz Shah | 49.6% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 11,420 | 63.6%-1.3 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Naz Shah | 64.7% | 16.6% | 1.6% | 21,902 | 67.4%+3.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Naz Shah 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 76.2% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 27,019 | 62.1%-5.3 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Naz Shah | 31.6% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 707 | 47.6%-14.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bradford West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bradford West. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Employed46.9 / 48.2vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+13.6 / 15.7vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3541.8 / 37.7vs 30.2
- ↑No quals29.0 / 33.1vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.3 / 23.0vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 54.5vs 61.9
- ↑No quals29.0 / 28.9vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↓Employed46.9 / 47.5vs 57.3
- ↑Private rent31.1 / 37.3vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.6 / 12.4vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 47.4vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3541.8 / 40.2vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent31.1 / 38.9vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.6 / 10.1vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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