Bradford West
Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · Bradford borough
About the Bradford West constituency
Bradford West is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber, covering most or all of Bradford. The sitting MP is Naz Shah (Labour), first elected in May 2015.
At the 2024 general election, other parties won Bradford West with 40.2% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 31.6%, a majority of 707 votes. Turnout was 47.6%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has other parties on 28.0% and the Greens on 23.1% in Bradford West, a margin of 4.9 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Bradford West is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 46.7% voted Leave in 2016). About 25.3% of residents hold a degree, 52.0% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 31 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by Labour each time.
Who lives in Bradford West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bradford West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bradford West
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Bradford West within Bradford
The Westminster constituency of Bradford West sits entirely within Bradford Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bradford West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bradford West at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Marsha Singh | 45.3% | 31.1% | 11.7% | 5,763 | 64.9% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Naz Shah | 49.6% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 11,420 | 63.6%-1.3 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Naz Shah | 64.7% | 16.6% | 1.6% | 21,902 | 67.4%+3.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Naz Shah 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 76.2% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 27,019 | 62.1%-5.3 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Naz Shah | 31.6% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 707 | 47.6%-14.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bradford West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bradford West. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Employed46.9 / 48.2vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+13.6 / 15.7vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3541.8 / 37.7vs 30.2
- ↑No quals29.0 / 33.1vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.3 / 23.0vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 54.5vs 61.9
- ↑No quals29.0 / 28.9vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↓Employed46.9 / 47.5vs 57.3
- ↑Private rent31.1 / 37.3vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.6 / 12.4vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied52.0 / 47.4vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3541.8 / 40.2vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent31.1 / 38.9vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.6 / 10.1vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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